Policing Crime and Disorder Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial*

Braga, Anthony A.; Bond, Brenda J.

doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2008.00124.x

Cited by 399 publications

(371 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The deterministic models developed here suggest that the empirically observed reductions in crime that follow implementation of hotspot policing strategies (8,32,33) are not a statistical artifact but rather may reflect suppression of crime risk below some threshold level necessary to sustain a subcritical crime hotspot. Crime should remain suppressed in such situations even after the removal of law enforcement pressure, until such time as a significant cluster of crimes pushes the system towards instability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models of crime

Short

Brantingham²,

Bertozzi³

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

200

140

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The mechanisms driving the nucleation, spread, and dissipation of crime hotspots are poorly understood. As a consequence, the ability of law enforcement agencies to use mapped crime patterns to design crime prevention strategies is severely hampered. We also lack robust expectations about how different policing interventions should impact crime. Here we present a mathematical framework based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations for studying the dynamics of crime hotspots. The system of equations is based on empirical evidence for how offenders move and mix with potential victims or targets. Analysis shows that crime hotspots form when the enhanced risk of repeat crimes diffuses locally, but not so far as to bind distant crime together. Crime hotspots may form as either supercritical or subcritical bifurcations, the latter the result of large spikes in crime that override linearly stable, uniform crime distributions. Our mathematical methods show that subcritical crime hotspots may be permanently eradicated with police suppression, whereas supercritical hotspots are displaced following a characteristic spatial pattern. Our results thus provide a mechanistic explanation for recent failures to observe crime displacement in experimental field tests of hotspot policing.crime pattern formation | hotspot policing | mathematical modeling | nonlinearity | partial differential equations C rime is a ubiquitous feature of all modern cities, but not all neighborhoods are affected equally. In fact, serious crimes ranging from residential burglary to homicide are strongly patterned in time and space, forming crime "hotspots" (1-3). Studies show that policing actions directed at crime hotspots do lead to real reductions in offending and calls to the police for service (4, 5), while displacement of crime to adjacent settings may be less common than once thought (6-8). However, further gains in crime reduction are dependent upon gaining a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that drive the emergence, spread, and dissipation of crime hotspots. Reaction-diffusion models, in which activators and inhibitors move, mix, and interact, provide a useful framework in which to investigate the formation of crime patterns and the impact of alternative policing strategies on crime hotspot stability. In this context, motivated offenders (activators) search their environment for suitable targets or victims (activators), which may also be mobile, following simple behavioral routines (9, 10). If an offender encounters a target in the absence of an effective security measure (inhibitor), then he is free to exploit that target. The immediate presence of security such as law enforcement is sufficient to deter that crime. Here we show that largescale spatial crime patterns, including the formation of stationary crime hotspots, are strongly dependent upon the local diffusion of risk, driven by offender mobility in the environment, coupled with the phenomena of repeat and near repeat victimization.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models of crime

Short

Brantingham²,

Bertozzi³

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

200

140

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As far as we can tell, there are few studies that have explicitly and directly tested the dosages of risk thresholds and its effect on the decision to commit crime (but cf. Braga and Bond 2008;Koper 1995). Even the broader literature on how much police presence affects perceptions of apprehension risk is scant (see Nagin 2013b; Wikström et al 2011).…”

Section: Quantifying the Certainty Of Apprehensionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet others have begun to look more closely at precisely what specific aspects of police presence may more effectively prevent crime than others. For example, some have looked at problem-oriented policing (e.g., Braga and Bond 2008;Braga et al 1999;Taylor et al 2010;Weisburd and Green 1995), drug enforcement operations (e.g., Weisburd andGreen 1994, 1995), increased gun searches and seizures (e.g., Sherman and Rogan 1995a, b), foot patrols (e.g., Ratcliffe et al 2011), crackdowns (Sherman and Rogan 1995a), Bzero-tolerancep olicing or Bbroken windows tactics^ (Caeti 1999;Weisburd et al 2011), and intensified engagement (Rosenfeld et al 2014). Yet few of these studies provide detailed measures of exactly what police were doing in the experimental hot spots; even one that did (Sherman and Rogan 1995a, b) failed to measure what police did in the control hot spot.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Soft” policing at hot spots—do police community support officers work? A randomized controlled trial

2016

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Objectives To determine whether crime-reduction effects of increased police patrols in hot spots are dependent on the Bhard^threat of immediate physical arrest, or whether Bsoft^patrols by civilian (but uniformed) police staff with few arrest powers and no weapons can also reduce crime. We also sought to assess whether the number of discrete patrol visits to a hot spot was more or less important than the total minutes of police presence across all visits, and whether effects based on counts of crime would be consistent with effects on a Crime Harm Index outcome. Methods We randomly assigned 72 hot spots into 34 treatment units and 38 controls. Treatment consisted of increases in foot patrol by uniformed, unarmed, Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) who carry no weapons and hold few arrest powers beyond those of ordinary citizens. GPS-trackers on every PCSO and Constable in the city yielded precise measurements of all patrol time in all hot spots. Standardized mean differences (Cohen's d), OLS regression model, and Weighted Displacement Quotient are used to assess main effects, to model the interaction effect of GPS data with treatment, and to measure the diffusion-of-benefits of the intervention, respectively. Outcomes included counts of incidents as well as the Cambridge Crime Harm Index. Results As intended, patrol visits and minutes by Police Constables were equal across the treatment and control groups. The sole difference in policing between the treatments groups was in visits to the hot spots by PCSOs, in both the mean daily frequency of discrete visits (T = 4.65, C = 2.66; p ≤ .001) and total minutes across all visits (T = 37.41, J Exp Criminol (2016) 12:277-317 DOI 10.1007/s11292-016-9260-

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“…Criminal justice system (Braga and Bond 2008;Weisburd et al 2008;Braga et al 2001) • Hot Spot Policing Mitchell et al 2012;Sherman and Weisburd 1995) • Jersey City Drug Market Analysis Experiment (David Weisburd)…”

Section: Jamaicamentioning

confidence: 99%

Restoring paradise in the Caribbean: combatting violence with numbers

2017

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ative Commons IGO 3.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC-IGO BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode) and may be reproduced with attribution to the IDB and for any non-commercial purpose.No derivative work is allowed.Any dispute related to the use of the works of the IDB that cannot be settled amicably shall be submitted to arbitration pursuant to the UNCITRAL rules. The use of the IDB's name for any purpose other than for attribution, and the use of IDB's logo shall be subject to a separate written license agreement between the IDB and the user and is not authorized as part of this CC-IGO license.Note that link provided above includes additional terms and conditions of the license. They lead to injury and the loss of human life, erode confidence in government, reduce the competitiveness of industries and services, negatively alter the investment climate, contribute to emigration, and can lead to the loss of skilled and educated citizens. Consequently, improving citizen security has become a priority of the Inter-American Development Bank in its efforts to support the governments and citizens of Latin America and the Caribbean.While citizen security has become an ever-increasing concern for many Caribbean countries, the magnitude of the problem has not been matched with an equally robust response in terms of research. Cross-national studies on the prevalence, causes, and effects of violence in the region are few. Empirical studies showing which policies have worked to reduce crime in the Caribbean are even scarcer.This volume analyses new data collected in household and business victimization surveys. These surveys allow us to understand crime from a primary source-the victims themselves. As such, this study goes beyond much of the existing literature, which relies primarily on police data. It contributes new information to our understanding of crime patterns, victim profiles, determinants of particular types of crime, and directions for crime reduction in the region.While the crime situation varies among countries, broadly speaking the Caribbean suffers from uniquely high levels of violent crime. After providing an overview of crime in five Caribbean capital cities, this volume addresses several factors associated with violent crime. These include youth, violence against women and children, neighbourhood characteristics, gangs, guns, and the police and criminal justice systems. The cost of this crime and violence to the Caribbean-about 3 percent of GDP-is significant. The study finds that victimization has negative ramifications for businesses, economic growth, tourism arrivals, emigration, and life satisfaction.However, perhaps the most unique aspect of this study is that it has been written with the specific intention of informing policy and programme design. There is much work in the region that is promising and much that is ineffective.This report helps to identify both, and urges that rigorous evaluations of the more promising programmes be conduc...

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Policing Crime and Disorder Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial*

Cited by 399 publications

References 45 publications

Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models of crime

Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models of crime

“Soft” policing at hot spots—do police community support officers work? A randomized controlled trial

Restoring paradise in the Caribbean: combatting violence with numbers

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