Policy Analysis to Reduce Climate Change-Induced Risks in Urban and Rural Areas in Korea

Abstract

Abstract:The purpose of this paper was to project changes in climate change-induced risks over time and to investigate policy alternatives to mitigate the risks from increases in sea level, heavy rains, and heat waves in urban and rural areas. System dynamics simulation was used to build a model and conduct policy analysis for a simulation period over the years 2000-2050. The model was built with a focus on the interaction among three factors: damage restoration costs from heavy rains, heat waves, and sea level rise; the total cost of food imports due to decreases in arable land and agricultural productivity; and changes in the government budget to respond to climate change problems. A policy experiment was conducted with the model under four scenarios mainly based on the government budget for climate change. The results indicated, firstly, that the climate budget needs to be increased to at least 13 trillion Korean Won (US $11.6 billion) per year. Secondly, an earlier budget increase would more effectively reduce the total disaster restoration cost than a delayed budget increase. Third, if an earlier budget increase is difficult, the next best alternative would be to allocate a greater fraction of the climate budget to urban rather than to rural areas. Lastly, an early response to climate change would more effectively reduce food import costs, maintain agricultural productivity, and improve infrastructure for climate change adaptation than a delayed response. In conclusion, an earlier increase in the climate change budget would be more effective than a delayed budget increase of the same amount, and allocating a larger fraction of the climate budget to urban areas could be more cost-effective than increasing the budget, if urban and rural parties could agree on the method of allocation.

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“…A number of papers focussed on narrow environmental topics, such as national park management in relation to urban development (Antunes et al, 2006), global warming and climate change (Fong et al, 2009;Allington et al, 2017;He et al, 2015;Moon et al, 2017), the ecological footprint (Jin et al, 2009), fossil-fuel emissions (Pataki et al, 2009;Hiasa et al, 2016;Procter et al, 2017), safety and terrorism (Thompson and Bank, 2010;Yu and Fang, 2017), ecosystem modelling (Jiang and Chen, 2011;Tsolakis and Anthopoulos, 2015;Xu and Kang, 2016), the self-sufficient and sustainable cities city (Park et al, 2013;Li et al, 2016;Wan et al, 2017;Fang et al, 2017), electricity demand forecasting (He et al, 2017) and chronic diseases in the urban environment (Brittin et al, 2015;Brittin et al, 2015).…”

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“…The first paper analyzes policy for reducing the climate change-induced risks in urban and rural areas in Korea [12]. The purpose of this paper is to project changes in climate change-induced risks over time and to investigate policy alternatives to mitigate the risks from increases in sea level, heavy rainfall events, and heat waves in urban and rural areas.…”