Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years

Braconier, Henrik; Nicoletti, Giuseppe; Westmore, Ben

doi:10.1787/5jz18gs5fckf-en

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…This leads to downward pressure on the skill premium in the model framework. However, as shown in Braconier et al (2014) continued skill-biased technological progress, with rapidly rising demand for higher skills, is likely to outpace the increase in the supply of skills, leading to increased wage inequality over the next 50 years.…”

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confidence: 99%

Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy

Château¹,

Fontagné²,

Fouré³

et al. 2015

OECD Journal: Economic Studies

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for their valuable comments and suggestions and Sarah Michelson for excellent editorial support. The paper has also benefited from comments by members of Working Party No. 1 of the OECD Economic Policy Committee. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy

Château¹,

Fontagné²,

Fouré³

et al. 2015

OECD Journal: Economic Studies

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“…For instance, Boothby et al (2010 [57]) find that firms that adopt advanced technologies together with providing strategic training (types of training whose provision is most influenced by the technology) are, on average, more productive than other technology adopters who do not train. In turn, the latter are more productive than those who do not use advanced technologies.…”

Section: The Importance Of Trainingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of innovation and human capital for the productivity of industries

Cammeraat

Samek

Squicciarini

2021

OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers

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This paper sheds light on the relationship between innovation, human capital endowment and upgrading, organisational capital (OC) and labour productivity. In addition to assessing correlations, it uses a Heckman selection model to address causal links and to account for the ways in which skills and investment in R&D affect the probability of innovating. The analysis finds that innovative output, the proportion of OC-related workers, investment in training (especially in informal training) and physical capital intensity are positively and significantly related to productivity. In most estimates ICT skills, cognitive skills and the presence of highly skilled workers in an industry also emerge as having a significant and positive relationship with productivity. ICT skills further appear to indirectly shape productivity, through a positive relationship with innovation.

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“…In ex ante terms, the downward pressure on investment exceeds that on saving over the first half of the projection period, so the global interest rate premiumwhich affects interest rates in all countries to help balance global saving with investment (see Box 2)keeps downward 19. Some authors, such as Borio et al (2017 [36] ), have cast doubt on the idea that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment.…”

Section: Low Interest Rates Have Eased Fiscal Pressures But May Not mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Long View

Guillemette¹,

Turner²

2018

OECD Economic Policy Papers

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The OECD Economic Policy Paper Series is published on the responsibility of the Secretary General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. Series: OECD Economic Policy Papers ISNN:2226583X On 3 May 2018, the OECD Council invited Lithuania to become a Member. At the time of preparation, the deposit of Lithuania's instrument of accession to the OECD Convention was pending and therefore Lithuania does not appear in the list of OECD Members and is not included in the OECD zone aggregates. On 25 May 2018, the OECD Council invited Colombia to become a Member. At the time of preparation, the deposit of Colombia's instrument of accession to the OECD Convention was pending and therefore Colombia does not appear in the list of OECD Members and is not included in the OECD zone aggregates. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area

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Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years

Cited by 14 publications

References 21 publications

Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy

Trade patterns in the 2060 world economy

The role of innovation and human capital for the productivity of industries

The Long View

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