Policy impacts estimates are sensitive to data selection in empirical analysis: evidence from the United States – Canada softwood lumber trade dispute

Zhang, Daowei; Parajuli, Rajan

doi:10.1139/cjfr-2016-0168

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 14 publications

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“…The methods used to obtain these results attempted to take into account the uncertainty due to the model parameters. Zhang and Parajuli (2016) also point out the sensitivity of policy impact estimates to data selection in empirical analysis. In particular, the approach in this paper assumed that numerous policy changes such as the repeated softwood lumber agreements between the US and Canada were included in the multicountry residual shocks of eqs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected effects of US tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber and newsprint imports: a cobweb model

Buongiorno

2018

Can. J. For. Res.

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Starting from the cobweb theorem, a model of demand, supply, multilateral trade, and prices was formulated for the softwood lumber and newsprint markets in Canada, the United States (US), and the rest of the world. Parameters were estimated with panel data from multiple years and countries. The model was used to project the effects of US tariffs on softwood lumber and newsprint imports from Canada. To assess the uncertainty of the projections, multiple replications were performed by repeated sampling from the parameters’ statistical distributions. The results suggested that the initial shock of the tariffs dampened out and took 3 to 4 years to stabilize. In the long run, other things being equal, a 20.83% US tariff on softwood lumber imports from Canada decreased US imports from Canada by 4.7% to 8.0% and raised the US price by 0.3% to 2.3% and the US production by 0.9% to 1.7%, with 95% probability, while it lowered the Canadian price by 0.7% to 3.0% and Canadian production by 1.1% to 2.4%. A 28.69% US tariff on newsprint imports from Canada decreased US imports from Canada by 3.2% to 7.0% and raised the US price by 1.4% to 3.3% and the US production by 2.9 to 6.3%, while it lowered the Canadian price by 0.8% to 1.9% and the Canadian production by 1.6% to 3.5%.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%