Policy Polarization, Income Inequality and Turnout

Abstract

Past research on the relationship between income inequality and turnout has produced mixed results, with some studies suggesting that income inequality leads to lower turnout while other studies find little or no significant effects. In this article, we investigate the extent to which these mixed results are due to the contingent nature of inequality on turnout, which depends upon the nature of the policy options that are presented to the electorate. We test these expectations on data from national elections in 30 established democracies from 1965 through 2017 covering 300 elections. Regression analysis using country-level fixed effects reveals consistent evidence in favor of our hypotheses: Inequality tends to have a negative impact on turnout, especially in depolarized party systems, but as party system polarization increases the negative impact of inequality is mitigated.

Inequality, policy polarization and the income gap in turnout

“…Although the magnitude is relatively small, the finding provides support for Hypothesis 2 and is in line with the recent aggregate-level results of Polacko et al (2020). Model 4 offers a test of the income effects in the relationship via a three-way interaction between gini t À 1, policy polarization, and income.…”

“…The second and third hypotheses relate to conflict theory, whereby income inequality is predicted to lead to a more conflictual politics by making class issues more salient. The second builds on the recent aggregate-level finding that as party system polarization increases, the negative impact of inequality on turnout is significantly mitigated (Polacko et al, 2020), by extending the analysis to the individual level. The third hypothesis provides the main contribution of the paper, by testing whether turnout is greater during periods of higher inequality for low-income earners-if parties adopt stronger redistributive policy positions in their election manifestos.…”

“…This study seeks to understand the relationship between income inequality and the income gap in turnout. It builds on recent cross-national aggregate-level research by Polacko et al (2020), which finds that income inequality has a negative impact on turnout, especially in depolarized party systems. But, if party system polarization increases, the negative impact of inequality is significantly mitigated.…”

The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout

“…20 Piketty 2014. 21 Polacko et al 2021. 22 Arzheimer 2008Fumagalli and Narciso 2012;Stockemer and Scruggs 2012;Stockemer and Parent 2014;Polacko et al 2021.…”

“…21 Polacko et al 2021. 22 Arzheimer 2008Fumagalli and Narciso 2012;Stockemer and Scruggs 2012;Stockemer and Parent 2014;Polacko et al 2021. 23 Polacko et al 2021; see also Stockemer 2017, p. 9.…”