Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno

doi:10.1257/aer.20141419

Cited by 590 publications

(403 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…As discussed in the previous section, the probability of reverting from MFN to the column 2 rate is estimated as the ratio

{\overset{β}{true}}_{4} / {\overset{β}{true}}_{1} = - 0.42 / - 2.79 = 0.15

for final goods and −0.64/−2.87 = 0.22 for intermediate good flows. These estimates are close to the probability of the column 2 tariff as estimated by Handley and Limão ().…”

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectssupporting

confidence: 88%

“…But after China’s accession to the WTO, the reduction in the uncertainty associated with that vote contributed importantly to the surge in exports to the United States. This argument is made by Pierce and Schott () and by Handley and Limão () . Pierce and Schott find that the surge in Chinese exports to the United States coincides with a substantial decline in U.S. manufacturing employment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…For example, Pierce and Schott () demonstrate that a change in U.S. policy uncertainty had a statistically significant impact on the decline of U.S. manufacturing employment. Several other studies find a sizable impact of China’s WTO accession on the growth of China’s exports (Crowley, Meng, & Song, ; Feng et al, ; Handley & Limão, ).…”

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectsmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Previous literature has found that there was policy uncertainty prior to China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, which had a negative effect on Chinese firm entry into the U.S. export market (Handley & Limão, ; Pierce & Scott, ). Accordingly, we shall introduce variables taking this policy uncertainty into account.…”

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

Feenstra

Sasahara

2018

Rev International Economics

126

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“…As discussed in the previous section, the probability of reverting from MFN to the column 2 rate is estimated as the ratio

{\overset{β}{true}}_{4} / {\overset{β}{true}}_{1} = - 0.42 / - 2.79 = 0.15

for final goods and −0.64/−2.87 = 0.22 for intermediate good flows. These estimates are close to the probability of the column 2 tariff as estimated by Handley and Limão ().…”

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectssupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Decomposing the Employment Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

Feenstra

Sasahara

2018

Rev International Economics

126

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…4 For other studies on uncertainty in trade, see Handley (2014) and Handley and Limao (2017 6 While this sample is restricted, these long-lived plants typically account for a disproportionately large share of activity in the manufacturing sector. Our industry-level analysis makes use of the publicly available NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database assembled by Becker et al (2013), which can be downloaded from the NBER website.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments

Pierce

Schott

2017

FEDS

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This paper examines the eect of a change in U.S. trade policy on the domestic investment of U.S. manufacturers. Using a dierence-in-dierences identication strategy, we nd that industries more exposed to reductions in import tari uncertainty exhibit relative declines in investment after the change in trade policy. Within industries, we nd that this relationship is concentrated among establishments with low initial levels of labor productivity, capital intensity and skill intensity. For plants with high initial levels of skill intensity, we nd that increased exposure is associated with a relative increase in investment. We also nd evidence that establishments' investment activity is smoother following the policy change.

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Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?

Gopinath¹

2020

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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This article reviews evidence of trade war impacts and emerging concerns on trade policy uncertainty. Trade war's near-perfect pass-through of tariffs to US prices favored producers and generated government revenue at the expense of consumers. Facing retaliation, prices and trade volumes were found to be lower for US agricultural commodities. The recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies has led to uncertain policy paths wherein firms and consumers continue to make decisions. Using quarterly data, a negative association between policy uncertainty and agricultural economic indicators is affirmed with implications for future evaluation of trade war impacts.

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Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States

Cited by 590 publications

References 56 publications

The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis

Investment Responses to Trade Liberalization: Evidence from U.S. Industries and Establishments

Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?

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