Política distributiva e competição presidencial no Brasil: Programa Bolsa-Família e a tese do realinhamento eleitoral

Abstract

The presidential elections are the main competition of the Brazilian political system. The current literature on the subject pointed out two thesis about the nature and dynamic of presidential elections: The Bolsa-Família (PBF) conditional cash transfer program is considered to be central and determinant to the electoral results and in 2006 would have contributed to realign the electoral bases of PT, the only party competitive in all elections. The policy is considered to be fundamental to explain the strength of the party on Northeast among poor electors. On this dissertation I examine these hypothesis and debate the theoretical, methodological and empirical inconsistences and deficiencies of the current literature. In order to do so, I replicate models, analyze novel models looking at surveys and aggregate data on the municipal level and on ballot level, among other methods. The results highlight conclusions different from the standing literature. First, I argue that the correlation between the electoral changes of 2006 and the social profile of electors occur heterogeneously over different regions and localities. If the proper measure is applied, these variations are better understood as a movement of volatile electors and not as realignment of electoral bases. Moreover, contrary to the current literature, I emphasize that the investigation over the electoral effect of the PBF shouldn't be restricted to its beneficiaries and neither that it is possible to infer its importance on the electoral result based on its regional distribution. Contrarily, based on the data we gathered, the impact of the PBF to the electoral results was more important on the Southeast than on the Northeast and it is not restricted to electors directly beneficed by the program. Still, I argue that if the adequate framework is adopted, it is possible to say that the impact of the PBF on the electoral results wasn't very strong or determinant to the electoral result. I conclude that the parties' long term electoral bases influence on present results, minimizing the fluctuations that occurred in 2006. As it happens with all the policies with high potential to impact on voters decisions, the effect of the PBF cannot be analyzed separately, it has to be considered inside the context of the electoral and political dispute.

Padrões de votação no tempo e no espaço: classificando as eleições presidenciais brasileiras

“…Esse padrão de alta concentração de votos para o PT nas regiões mais pobres do país estaria relacionado às políticas sociais promovidas pelo governo Lula durante o seu primeiro mandato. Alguns estudos(Bohl, 2011;Simoni Jr., 2017) relativizam a importância dos programas sociais para esse padrão de votação, mais especificamente o Bolsa Família, argumentando, por exemplo, que, historicamente, candidatos incumbentes sempre têm maior votação nas áreas menos desenvolvidas do país…”

“…Simoni Jr. (2017), por exemplo, mostra que na região Sul do país, no nível agregado de seções eleitorais, o partido, em 2002, já era o mais votado entre os "menos educados" (p. 103).…”