Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

Selin, Henrik; VanDeveer, Stacy D.

doi:10.1111/j.1541-1338.2007.00265.x

Cited by 104 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In addition to previous studies (Selin and VanDeveer 2007), we have extended the qualitative scenario storylines with predictions of ecosystem goods and services in mountain regions based on an integrative modeling approach. We are aware that the results of model-based scenario assessments are associated with uncertainty (Fischer et al 2007) and may change considerably if underlying parameters and assumptions are adjusted (Sterman 1991).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining Policy Network and Model-Based Scenario Analyses: An Assessment of Future Ecosystem Goods and Services in Swiss Mountain Regions

Hirschi¹,

Widmer²,

Briner³

et al. 2013

E&S

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ABSTRACT. We argue that the often-proclaimed disregard of ex-ante assessments of the provision of ecosystem goods and services in policy-making processes is not only due to a neglect or a misinterpretation of the results of such assessments in the relevant political processes, but also due to an inaccurate inclusion of political variables into those assessments. To address this weakness, we combine a model-based scenario analysis with a policy network analysis. Analyzing the structure of the policy network and taking into account the policy preferences of the individual network actors allows us to assess the feasibility and likelihood of policy developments as derived from scenario-based modeling assessments. We demonstrate the applicability of our approach in an analysis of potential policy measures aimed at maintaining crucial ecosystem goods and services in Swiss mountain regions, with a specific focus on agriculture, which is arguably one of the most important sectors for various ecosystem goods and services in those regions. Our results show that a production-oriented agricultural policy still has strong political support and, consequently, a status-quo protection scenario is very likely. In contrast, a more environmentally friendly agricultural policy is unlikely if it leads to extensive new regulations for agricultural production. Even with a greening scenario performing best within a set of ex-ante model-based assessments of future policy options, our policy network analysis suggests that changes in agricultural policy would have to reconcile the support of the provision of nonmarketable ecosystem goods and services with market deregulation policies in order to become politically feasible.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining Policy Network and Model-Based Scenario Analyses: An Assessment of Future Ecosystem Goods and Services in Swiss Mountain Regions

Hirschi¹,

Widmer²,

Briner³

et al. 2013

E&S

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Primary mechanisms that local governments are using to prepare for climate change include land use planning; provisions to protect infrastructure and ecosystems; regulations related to the design and construction of buildings, roads, and bridges; and emergency preparation, response, and recovery (Dierwechter 2010;Grannis 2011;Kahn 2009;Selin and VanDeveer 2007;Solecki and Rosenzweig 2012). According to a recent survey of 298 U.S. local governments, 59 % indicated they are engaged in some form of adaptation planning (Carmin et al 2012).…”

Section: Local/regional and Tribal Governmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

Bierbaum

Smith

Lee

et al. 2012

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

372

202

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We reviewed existing and planned adaptation activities of federal, tribal, state, and local governments and the private sector in the United States (U.S.) to understand what types of adaptation activities are underway across different sectors and scales throughout the country. Primary sources of review included material officially submitted for consideration in the upcoming 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment and supplemental peer-reviewed and grey literature. Although substantial adaptation planning is occurring in various sectors, levels of government, and the private sector, few measures have been implemented and even fewer have been evaluated. Most adaptation actions to date appear to be incremental changes, not the transformational changes that may be needed in certain cases to adapt to significant changes in climate. While there appear to be no one-size-fits-all adaptations, there Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2013) are similarities in approaches across scales and sectors, including mainstreaming climate considerations into existing policies and plans, and pursuing no-and low-regrets strategies. Despite the positive momentum in recent years, barriers to implementation still impede action in all sectors and across scales. The most significant barriers include lack of funding, policy and institutional constraints, and difficulty in anticipating climate change given the current state of information on change. However, the practice of adaptation can advance through learning by doing, stakeholder engagements (including "listening sessions"), and sharing of best practices. Efforts to advance adaptation across the U.S. and globally will necessitate the reduction or elimination of barriers, the enhancement of information and best practice sharing mechanisms, and the creation of comprehensive adaptation evaluation metrics.

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“…Rabe (2004) finds that US state initiatives could help promote the development of federal US climate policy in a bottom-up fashion. Other researchers predict that future US federal climate policy will evolve from and be motivated by major state and regional US climate policy adoption trends (Selin and VanDeveer, 2007). Purvis (2004), on the general practice of the US ''to act first at home, and then to build on that approach at the international level,'' suggests that present environmental developments in the US could eventually spur a new international climate change regime (i.e.…”

Section: Literature Review and Research Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

America's bottom-up climate change mitigation policy

2008

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Many diverse actions can be taken to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Increasingly in the United States, policy-makers at subnational levels are setting emission targets and implementing plans for sector-specific GHG reductions. In this paper, local, state, and regional policy actions in the US are inventoried and analyzed as to their potential effect on national emissions. The realization of all existing subnational initiatives, as of September 2007, could stabilize US emissions at 2010 levels by the year 2020. The scale of these many decentralized mitigation actions, and their tendency to follow consistent steps, provide a counterpoint to oft-cited drawbacks of decentralized environmental policy. It also indicates that the US has been more committed to climate change mitigation than is generally acknowledged. r

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Political Science and Prediction: What's Next for U.S. Climate Change Policy?

Cited by 104 publications

References 46 publications

Combining Policy Network and Model-Based Scenario Analyses: An Assessment of Future Ecosystem Goods and Services in Swiss Mountain Regions

Combining Policy Network and Model-Based Scenario Analyses: An Assessment of Future Ecosystem Goods and Services in Swiss Mountain Regions

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

America's bottom-up climate change mitigation policy

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