Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery

Bagues, Manuel; Esteve-Volart, Berta

doi:10.1086/688178

Cited by 90 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Our findings relate more broadly to a literature on the effects of economic shocks on voters(Scheve and Slaughter, 2001;Bagues and Esteve-Volart, 2014;Jensen, Quinn, and Weymouth, 2016;Charles and Stephens, 2013;Brunner, Ross, and Washington, 2011;Giuliano and Spilimbergo, 2014) and political cleavages(Rogowski, 1987;Hiscox, 2002).…”

supporting

confidence: 69%

Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

Dippel

Gold

Heblich³

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractIt is often the case that an endogenous treatment variable causally affects an intermediate variable that in turn causally affects a final outcome. Using an Instrumental Variable (IV) identifies the causal effect of the endogenous treatment on both the intermediate and the final outcome variable, but not the extent to which the intermediate variable affects the final outcome. We present a new testable framework in which a single IV suffices to also estimate the causal effect of the intermediate variable on the final outcome. We use this framework to investigate to what extent German voters responded to the labor market turmoil caused by increasing trade with low-wage manufacturing countries. We first establish that import competition increased voters' support for only extreme (right) parties. We then decompose this populist 'total effect' into a 'mediated effect' running through labor market adjustments and a 'direct effect' of trade exposure on voting behavior. We find the total consists of a large populist effect driven by labor markets and a relatively smaller but moderating direct effect. Our approach provides a template that may be useful in a broad range of empirical applications studying causal mechanisms in observational data.

show abstract

supporting

confidence: 69%

Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

Dippel

Gold

Heblich³

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Others contest these two results, claiming that they are false positives (Fowler and Montagnes, 2015;Fowler and Hall, n.d.; although see Healy et al, 2015). Numerous experimental studies demonstrate that irrelevant events, such as the weather, sporting events, and random lotteries, can influence political Ethan C. Busby and James N. Druckman 5 opinions and/or behaviors (e.g., Healy et al, 2010, study 2;Bagues and Esteve-Volart, 2016;Bassi, 2017;Huber et al, 2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Football and Public Opinion: A Partial Replication and Extension

Busby¹,

Druckman²

2017

J Exp Polit Sci

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Do events irrelevant to politics, such as the weather and sporting events, affect political opinions? A growing experimental literature suggests that such events can matter. However, extant experimental evidence may over-state irrelevant event effects; this could occur if these studies happen to focus on particular scenarios where irrelevant event effects are likely to occur. One way to address this possibility is through replication, which is what we do. Specifically, we replicate an experimental study that showed the outcome of a college football game can influence presidential approval. Our results partially replicate the previous study and suggest the impact is constrained to a limited set of outcome variables. The findings accentuate the need for scholars to identify the conditions under which irrelevant effects occur. While the effects clearly can occur, there relevance to politics remains unclear.

show abstract

“…As of 2007, over 400 articles and books were written about economic voting (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2007), and many more have been written since. For a recent review of some of the literature, see Bagues and Esteve-Volart (2016). 2 There is some experimental work using lab participants and/or survey respondents, which we discuss below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Distress and Voting: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Hall¹,

Yoder²,

Karandikar³

2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Roughly 7 million Americans lost homes to foreclosure during the Great Recession. Despite claims that the subprime mortgage crisis helped fuel recent political turmoil in the U.S., we lack systematic empirical evidence about the effects of this unprecedented spike in home foreclosures on American elections. We combine nationwide deed-level public records data on home foreclosures with election data and administrative voter data to examine the effects of home foreclosures on electoral outcomes and on individual voter turnout. At the aggregate level, county-level difference-in-differences estimates show that counties that suffered larger increases in foreclosures did not punish or reward members of the incumbent president's party more than less affected counties. At the individual level, merging the Ohio voter file with foreclosure data, difference-in-differences estimates reveal that Ohioans whose homes were foreclosed on were somewhat less likely to turn out to vote, particularly when foreclosures occurred close to election day. The findings cast doubt on the claim that individual-level economic distress during the Great Recession directly activated angry voters, and raise questions about the posited causal link between economic distress and the electoral punishment of incumbents. * For comments and suggestions, the authors thank

show abstract

Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery

Cited by 90 publications

References 22 publications

Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

Football and Public Opinion: A Partial Replication and Extension

Economic Distress and Voting: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About