Population Aging in Postwar Japan: Processes and Prospects

Shimizutani, Satoshi

doi:10.1080/13439006.2015.1107261

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The estimation in WPP2019 should take into account the impact of family planning policy on fertility in China, therefore, the birth rate was set to 1.70~1.75 between 2020-2050. Japan is the first non-Western country that was found to track the typical transition pattern (18). The total fertility rate has fallen much earlier in Japan than that in China.…”

Section: Reasons For Population Aging In China and Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another critical factor for population aging is the decline of mortality, especially among older adults (16). In Japan, since low fertility rates have been maintained for a long time, the more prominent reason for the growing number of aging population is low death rate of the elderly (18). In the second half of last century, life expectancy has greatly increased in both China and Japan.…”

Section: Reasons For Population Aging In China and Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

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China has faster pace than Japan in population aging in next 25 years

Chen

Song

et al. 2019

BST

111

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The aging of a population structure is an inevitable path of demographic transition, as an inescapable result of decline in fertility rate and extension in life expectancy. Although demographic transition occurred earlier in Japan than in China, the two countries had similar patterns, both of which took a much shorter period of time than Western countries to complete demographic transition, as well as have been aging at a rapid speed that has rarely been seen in the world. Japan has the highest level of population aging in the world, and China has been experiencing a very fast pace of the population aging process and has the largest older population. Drawing upon data from World Population Prospects (2019), this paper compares changes in population aging in both China and Japan. Findings show that Japan's aging process is 30 years ahead of China, but China has been changing in a similar way as Japan. To be specific, both countries experienced four phases of the population aging process: accelerated development period, rapid development period, slow down period and high-level maintained period. In addition, both countries had a quick growing rate of population aging. It will take China 23 years and 10 years respectively for the aging rate increasing from 7% to 14% and then to 20%, while Japan took 24 and 11 years respectively, which is much shorter than developed countries in the West. Furthermore, China has a faster pace than Japan in population aging in the next 25 years. We found that from 2019-2044, China's aging rate, elderly dependency ratio, oldest-old coefficient and median age of population will increase 13.24 percent points, 24.21 percent points, 8.33 percent points, and 8.47 years, while the four indicators of Japan will increase 8.38 percent points, 22.52 percent points, 8.29 percent points, and 6.20 years, respectively.

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Section: Reasons For Population Aging In China and Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Reasons For Population Aging In China and Japanmentioning

confidence: 99%