Predictions of snag longevity, defined here as the probability of snag survival to a given age, are key to designing silvicultural regimes that ensure their availability for wildlife and form an important component of carbon flow models. Species, diameter at breast height, stand density, management regime. and agent of tree mortality were assessed for their effect on snag longevity in a long-term siivicultural study on the Penobscot Experimental Forest in central Maine. Snag recruitment and fall data from USDA Forest Service inventories between 1981 and 1997 were analyzed using parametric survival analysis. A Weibull model fit the data best, indicating a significant lag time followed by rapid . fall rates. Half-times varied among species. with Thuja occidentalis L. having the longest (10 years) and Picea species the shortest (6 years). Snag longex~ity was signilicantly greater with increasing diameter and decreased with increasing stand density. Agent of mortality and silvicultural treatment were also significant. Two models were developed for estimating probability of snag survival over time. one that included predictor variables unique to the silvicultural systems study on the Penobscot Experimental Forest and one using predictor variables available in most standard inventories. Snag survival models can easily be incorporated into comprehensive forest dynamics models to facilitate estimates of wildlife habitat structure and carbon flow. R b m B : La prediction de la longevit6 des chicots, dhfinie ici c o m e Ctant la probabilite de survie dles chic06 est un Clement cl6 de la conception des regimes sylvicoles qui en assurent la disponibilitk pour la faune et constitue une composante importante des modkles de flux de carbone. L'espitce, le dinmktre 2 hauteur de poitrine. la densite du peuplement, le r6gin1e d'itn~Cnagement ed la cause de mortalit6 des arbres ont 6t6 Cvalu6s pour connaftre lew effet sur la long6viti5 des chicots dans le cadre d'une etude sylvicole h long terme B la For& exp6rimeatale de Penobscot situke dam le centre du Maine, aux ~t a t s -~n i s .Les donnCes d'inventaue de 1981 A 1997 du USDA Forest Senice sur le recrutelaeht et la chute des chicots ont 6t6 Ctudihes h I'aide d'une analyse parametrique de survie. Un nnoditle de Weibull s'est le mieux ajust6 aux donnCea ce qui indique qu'il y a une importante periode de latence suivie par un taux de chute rapide. La demi-vie des chicots variait selon I'espsce, avec la plus longue (10 am) associh B Thuja occidentaZis L. et la plus courte (6 ans) & Picea spp. La longkvit6 des chicots etait significativement plus forte lorsqne leur diamktre augmentait et plus faible lorsque la densit6 du peuplement augmentait. La cause de mortalitt? et le traitement sylvicole etatent Cgalemen~ importants. Deux modeles ont C d dCvelopp6s pour estimer la probabilite de suwie des chicots en fonction du ;temps. Le premier inclut des variables de prediction propres aux systkmes sylvicoles de la Fort% exp6ri-mentale de Penobscdt et le deuxikme utilise des variab...