Population and Employment Change in US Metropolitan Areas

Mulligan, Gordon F.; Nilsson, Helena; Carruthers, John I.

doi:10.1007/978-981-13-9231-3_6

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Further study is also needed of those different sub-periods that reflect the ups and downs of the nation's business or trade cycle. Finally, endogeneity might be addressed by introducing a regional adjustment model to allow employment numbers and unemployment rates to interact with the ever-changing patterns seen across the USA in population numbers, real wages, and proprietary employment (Mulligan et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic vulnerability in US metropolitan areas

Mulligan

2022

Ann Reg Sci

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This paper examines various aspects of recent employment vulnerability in US metropolitan areas. Based on the three decades preceding COVID-19, an estimate is made of the volatility (sensitivity) in each area's unemployment rate, relative to the national rate, and this reflects the area's overall employment vulnerability to external events. Using the Brechling-Thirlwall time-series approach, the monthly change in each area's unemployment rate is first compared to the monthly change in the nation's unemployment rate. Regression analysis is then used to tie the volatility seen in those metropolitan unemployment rates to various initial conditions: degree of specialization in primary (+), manufacturing (+), and government (−) activities; initial unemployment (+); human-created (−) and natural amenities (+); real wages (−); self-employment (−); and the presence of major colleges or universities (−). An alternative specification reassesses these estimates after including the volatility of unemployment rates across the nation's various states. A short discussion then addresses the issue of vulnerability in specific activities. Selecting four industries that were identified "at risk" during early COVID events, ranked employment specialization indices (LQs) are correlated with ranked volatility estimates of unemployment rates. In the more advanced economies, metropolitan areas typically specialize in, and trade across, different industries, but this specialization can create overall employment vulnerability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, the role of natural-and human-created amenities is seen to be increasingly important in attempts to widen or deepen the region's pool of skilled and educated workers (Marans and Stimson. 2011;Mulligan et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%