Population density, a factor in the spread of COVID-19 in Algeria: statistic study

Abstract

Background: Since November 2019, the world has suffered the disastrous consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. No country has been spared either socially or economically. Given the inevitability of the spread of this virus, researches have been active to understand and to counteract the factors that anticipate its spread. In this research, we endorse population density as a catalyst factor for the proliferation of COVID-19 in Algeria. We are interested in the relationship between population density and the spread of COVID-19 in Algerian cities. The latter is characterized by a disparity in the concentration of the population according to the geographic location of each. Results: The cluster analysis allowed us to isolate the groups of cities with the highest numbers of COVID-19 infected cases and the highest population densities. The regression models obtained suggest that there is a strong correlation between the population density and the number of COVID-19 infections in Algeria. This finding is verified by the correlation coefficients. Thus, it is estimated that population density has a positive effect on the spread of COVID-19 in the Algerian context during the study period. Conclusions: The spread of COVID-19 in Algeria is increasing as the population density increases. Once this factor has been demonstrated, the fight against the proliferation of the virus can be thwarted by measures to raise public awareness of social distancing in public places namely supermarkets, markets, and cafes.

Factors Affecting the Cases and Deaths of COVID-19 Victims

“…In view of sociodemographic factors, number of cases, sex ratio, disposable income and the average age are significant determinants of the death rates in the German states [ 20 ]. COVID-19 deaths are mainly observed among elderly males aged over 65, and smoking patients might face a greater risk of developing into the critical or mortal condition and the comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, obesity, population density and respiratory diseases could also greatly affect the prognosis of the COVID-19 [ 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 ]. In contrast, some researchers found that population density is not an important factor affecting COVID-19 cases or deaths [ 29 , 30 ].…”

The spread rate of SARS-CoV-2 is strongly associated with population density

“…SARS-CoV-2, heavily depends on population density. 1 Besides, population density has large impacts on the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of SARS-COV-2. 2 It is also observed that patients in high-transmission areas have a higher incidence of severe coronavirus disease outcomes when compared with patients in low-transmission areas.…”

Using A Socio-Ecological System (SES) Framework to Explain Factors Influencing Countries’ Success Level in Curbing COVID-19

“…Detailed result explanations are provided below, based on each SES attribute. Based on a study done by Kadi and Khelfaoui in Algeria, population density indeed plays a role in the transmission of virus (Kadi & Khelfaoui, 2020). However, it cannot be a strong explanatory factor as to why the number of cases are as known (Bouba-Olga, 2020).…”