Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Dengue as Influenced by Weather and Human Behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Abstract

Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence.

Concentración de los anticuerpos en contra de proteínas de las glándulas salivares de Aedes aegypti e historia de la exposición al virus del dengue en residentes de una zona endémica colombiana

“…Production of Ae. aegypti from urban containers can be instrumental in triggering DENV outbreaks during the dry season (19). In fact, this study found a significant number of houses with tanks holding water for human consumption C.…”

“…aegypti, across more than 90% of the country (18). Barrera, et al, found that the most important factor determining DENV endemicity was the practice of water storage, which provided a source of mosquito breeding sites (19), especially when the water was not frequently replaced (20). In addition, improvements to water distribution infrastructure have been shown to decrease the incidence of vector-transmitted diseases by decreasing the amount of exposure to infected bites (21).…”

Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments

“…In the case of rainfall, association delays tend to be shorter, between 1 and 4 weeks (Barrera et al 2011;Scott et al 2000) and it can be argued that changes in adult recruitment by rainfall induced generation of larval habitats could underlie the outbreaks (Chase & Knight 2003;Chaves et al 2012;Yang et al 2009a). In this sense, rainfall and associated changes in relative humidity could ease mosquito dispersal (Edman et al 1998) which maybe essential for population persistence even if local mosquito larval sources are not viable, as suggested by metapopulation persistence of locally inviable populations in models that consider dispersal in autocorrelated environments (Roy et al 2005).…”

“…Moreover, several long-term studies on Ae. aegypti abundance have shown the abundance of this mosquito species to be correlated with different environmental factors, primarily rainfall and temperature (Barrera et al 2011;Dibo et al 2008;Foo et al 1985;Ho et al 1971;Oo et al 2011;Schultz 1993;Scott et al 2000;Tonn et al 1970), but also with "socio-ecological" factors such as unreliable water supply (Barrera et al 1993;Padmanabha et al 2010) or lack of community engagement in proper water container disposal (Predescu et al 2007). Similar patterns of association between mosquito abundance and weather fluctuations have been observed in other Aedes spp.…”

Spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Malaysia: combining address and sub-district level

“…The distribution patterns of dengue cases reflect the multifaceted interaction of all these risk factors. The risk of this disease is expected to significantly increase in the near future, and the absence of effective treatment makes the development of adequate vector control strategies more important than ever (Vanwambeke et al, 2007;Barrera et al, 2011).…”