Population forecasting and planning: Some philosophical issues

Moen, Elizabeth

doi:10.1007/bf00123009

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…As reported by Bell (1992), prediction accuracy may not be the only purpose for population projections. The concept of using the projection to drive change and generate a desired or target population was proposed by Moen (1984). Isserman (1984) classified projections or forecasts into four groups:…”

Section: Assessing Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving small area population projections

Baker,

Coffee,

Page

et al. 2024

AHURI Final Report

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Related reports and documentsInquiry into projecting Australia's urban and regional futures: population dynamics, regional mobility and planning responses https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research-in-progress/Inquiry-intoprojecting-Australias-urban-and-regional-futures-populationdynamics-regional-mobility-and-planning-responses AHURI AHURI is a national independent research network with an expert not-for-profit research management company, AHURI Limited, at its centre. AHURI's mission is to deliver high quality research that influences policy development and practice change to improve the housing and urban environments of all Australians.Using high quality, independent evidence and through active, managed engagement, AHURI works to inform the policies and practices of governments and the housing and urban development industries, and stimulate debate in the broader Australian community. AHURI undertakes evidence-based policy development on a range of priority policy topics that are of interest to our audience groups, including housing and labour markets, urban growth and renewal, planning and infrastructure development, housing supply and affordability, homelessness, economic productivity, and social cohesion and wellbeing. AHURI Limited also gratefully acknowledges the contributions, both financial and in-kind, of its university research partners who have helped make the completion of this material possible.We also acknowledge the generous and insightful contributions of the industry and policy members of our Expert Panel. DisclaimerThe opinions in this report reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of AHURI Limited, its Board, its funding organisations or Inquiry Panel members. No responsibility is accepted by AHURI Limited, its Board or funders for the accuracy or omission of any statement, opinion, advice or information in this publication. AHURI journalAHURI Final Report journal series is a refereed series presenting the results of original research to a diverse readership of policy makers, researchers and practitioners. Peer review statementAn objective assessment of reports published in the AHURI journal series by carefully selected experts in the field ensures that material published is of the highest quality. The AHURI journal series employs a double-blind peer review of the full report, where anonymity is strictly observed between authors and referees.

show abstract

Section: Assessing Accuracymentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving small area population projections

Baker,

Coffee,

Page

et al. 2024

AHURI Final Report

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections

Bell

Skinner

1992

Journal of Population Research

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Improving small area population projections

Baker,

Coffee,

Page

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the patterns and impacts of population migrations within Australia is key for governments and providers of housing, infrastructure and services to be able to plan where they will prioritise resources. New AHURI research critically assesses the population projection methods available to Australian decision-makers and planners.Population projections are modelled either as top-down models, where larger spatial units are used to control the smaller area projections, or as bottom-up models, where the smaller area projections are added together to form the population projection of the larger spatial units.For example, with a top-down projection Australia’s total population can be used as a control total for the state and territory projections and, in turn, these are used to control the smaller regional populations projections. In the bottom-up model, the projected populations of the states and territories would be added together to form the total population projection of Australia. A significant finding is that because different users need different levels of understanding about future population changes, it is unlikely the existing methods could be unified into one nationally consistent approach that would be accurate enough for everyone’s needs. However, results can be improved by users prioritising good quality, reliable and timely data; ensuring consistent approaches and shared information sources; and making sure they have a good understanding of each method’s strengths and weaknesses.

show abstract

Population forecasting and planning: Some philosophical issues

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Improving small area population projections

Improving small area population projections

Forecast accuracy of australian subnational population projections

Improving small area population projections

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About