Population viability analysis of the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria) in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Nóbrega, Paula Fernanda Albonette de; Pinho, João Batista de; Duca, Charles

doi:10.1007/bf03544395

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Junk (2013) pointed out that precipitation rates in South America's floodplains will change dramatically in the future, with rainfall increasing in the rainy season and decreasing during the dry season, intensifying climate seasonality. Nesting depends mainly upon rainfall, given that the species' reproductive peak coincides with the onset of the rainy season because of higher availability of resources (invertebrates; Bernardon et al 2014, Nóbrega et al 2017. Thus, climate change also tends to directly affect the species' reproductive period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The species is resident, strictly insectivorous, its behavior is inconspicuous, and it inhabits the dense understory of humid tropical forests along waterways (Zimmer et al 2020). The Mato Grosso Antbird's dispersal ability is limited by its shape, which prevents it from flying long distances and, hence, from crossing non-forested areas (Pinho et al 2006, Nóbrega et al 2017, Sheard et al 2020). The species' known distribution is restricted to floodplains and wetlands in the Pantanal region of Brazil and Bolivia (Zimmer et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Zucchetto¹,

Silveira²,

Prasniewski³

et al. 2021

ACE

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Future climate change poses an immediate threat to biodiversity. Species are shifting their geographic distribution in direct response to climate change. Species around the globe are expected to redistribute poleward and/or to high elevations. However, in the Neotropical region, the effects of climate change on species distribution are still unclear. Here, we aimed to infer the current and future geographical distribution of an insectivorous bird species endemic to South American floodplains, the Mato Grosso Antbird (Cercomacra melanaria). We also estimated shifts in the variables of elevation, longitude, latitude, and slope based on forecasting. Current and future distribution in different climate scenarios were predicted using ecological niche modeling (ENM). A non-parametric Kruskall-Wallis test followed by Dunn's post hoc test were carried out to determine if dependent variables (elevation, slope, latitude, and longitude) differed between climate scenarios. Our findings suggest that future climate change will have negative effects (range contraction) on the distribution of the Mato Grosso Antbird. The decrease in the species' geographical range will cause it to shift to higher elevations, latitudes, longitudes, and slopes. The species should tend to disperse toward more suitable areas located in highlands close to wetlands, such as the headwaters of the Upper Paraguay River Basin (UPB), and toward the Andean highlands. However, this species inhabits strictly forested environments covering a small home range and its mobility capacity is limited. It is possible that the species will not be able to achieve future geographical redistribution, thus increasing its risk of extinction. Effets des futurs changements climatiques sur la répartition géographique d'un oiseau endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du SudRÉSUMÉ. Les futurs changements climatiques constituent une menace immédiate pour la biodiversité. Les espèces modifient leur répartition géographique en réaction directe aux changements climatiques. On s'attend à ce que les espèces du monde entier se redistribuent vers les pôles ou les hautes altitudes. Cependant, dans la région Néotropicale, les effets des changements climatiques sur la répartition des espèces ne sont toujours pas clairs. Dans le présent article, nous avons tenté de déduire la répartition géographique actuelle et future d'une espèce d'oiseau insectivore endémique des plaines inondables d'Amérique du Sud, le Grisin du Mato Grosso (Cercomacra melanaria). Nous avons également calculé les changements sur le plan des variables d'altitude, de longitude, de latitude et de pente en fonction des prévisions. La répartition actuelle et future selon différents scénarios climatiques a été prédite en utilisant la modélisation de niche écologique (MNÉ). Nous avons réalisé un test non paramétrique de Kruskall-Wallis, puis un test post hoc de Dunn, pour déterminer si les variables dépendantes (altitude, pente, latitude et longitude) différaient entre les scénarios climatiques. Nos résultats indiquent ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%