Port Planning and Sustainable Development Based on Prediction Modelling of Port Throughput: A Case Study of the Deep-Water Dongjiakou Port

Abstract

With the rapid development of ports, the port industry continues to focus on the function, service, and value chains. Further accelerating the high-quality development of ports has become crucial to promoting urban construction and economic development. Dongjiakou Port is an important shipping and logistics hub in the center of the Bohai Economic Rim and the Northeast Asia economic circle, which has superior deep-water resources. Through active transformation and upgrade, it has become an international trade hub with sustainable practices. This research examined Dongjiakou Port as a case study and employed a grey prediction model to analyze and predict port throughput and to determine the indicators and impact factors for a green port. In addition, the grey model and principal component analysis were used to predict the throughput of Dongjiakou Port from 2021 to 2025, and the effectiveness of the model was verified by comparing the predicted and actual throughput from 2014 to 2020. In addition, this research also provided suggestions for the sustainable development of ports from the aspects of port planning, port cargo structures, and effective port governance and development. The prediction model can provide support for future port planning and port design, to a certain extent, and can also provide references for predicting port throughput and promoting the construction of new ports and sustainable port development.

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