Possible effects of global warming on fish recruitment: shifts in spawning season and latitudinal distribution can alter growth of fish early life stages through changes in daylength

Shoji, Jun; Toshito, Shun-ichi; Mizuno, K.; Kamimura, Yasuhiro; Hori, Masakazu; Hirakawa, Koji

doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr059

Cited by 68 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Mean temperature from December to February in the Seto Inland Sea (11-18°C) is approximately 8°C higher than that in Sendai Bay (4-9°C: http://www.tnfri.fra.affrc.go.jp/). Recent analysis showed that the larval growth rate of S. cheni back-calculated by the use of otolith microstructure of January-extruded cohort was about 0.3 mm d -1 in the Seto Inland Sea and about 0.2 mm d -1 in Sendai Bay, and that there was a significant positive correlation between daily growth rates and ambient temperatures (Shoji et al 2011). The length-age relationships obtained during the larval and early juvenile periods were linear (Shoji et al 2011;present study).…”

Section: Occurrence Of Juvenile S Cheni In Vegetated Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…Recent analysis showed that the larval growth rate of S. cheni back-calculated by the use of otolith microstructure of January-extruded cohort was about 0.3 mm d -1 in the Seto Inland Sea and about 0.2 mm d -1 in Sendai Bay, and that there was a significant positive correlation between daily growth rates and ambient temperatures (Shoji et al 2011). The length-age relationships obtained during the larval and early juvenile periods were linear (Shoji et al 2011;present study). Therefore, it is plausible that the differences in temperature would explain the difference in the seasonal timing of migration: the higher larval growth rate due to higher temperature would have resulted in the earlier migration (but at the same TL of 20 mm) of the S. cheni juveniles into the vegetated habitat in the Seto Inland Sea.…”

Section: Occurrence Of Juvenile S Cheni In Vegetated Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 59%

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Production and prey source of juvenile black rockfish Sebastes cheni in a seagrass and macroalgal bed in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan: estimation of the economic value of a nursery

2011

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Section: Occurrence Of Juvenile S Cheni In Vegetated Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Occurrence Of Juvenile S Cheni In Vegetated Habitatsmentioning

confidence: 59%

Production and prey source of juvenile black rockfish Sebastes cheni in a seagrass and macroalgal bed in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan: estimation of the economic value of a nursery

2011

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“…Differential phenological responses across species will lead to temporal mismatches among trophic levels (Visser and Both, 2005;Thackeray et al, 2010). Climate change will alter the seasonal and temporal extent of areas favorable to reproduction, growth and survival for marine species (e.g., Shoji et al, 2011). Species may respond directly to changes in temperature and other climatic variables and also indirectly through changes in food and habitat resources (Stewart et al, 2014;Sydeman et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

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“…Shifts in spring spawning phenology to earlier in the year cause there to be fewer hours of daylight available when visual predators are able to hunt, leading to depressed growth rates among larval fishes (Shoji et al, 2011). Shifts in spring spawning phenology to earlier in the year cause there to be fewer hours of daylight available when visual predators are able to hunt, leading to depressed growth rates among larval fishes (Shoji et al, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

Asch

Stock

Sarmiento

2019

Global Change Biology

146

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Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

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Possible effects of global warming on fish recruitment: shifts in spawning season and latitudinal distribution can alter growth of fish early life stages through changes in daylength

Cited by 68 publications

References 13 publications

Production and prey source of juvenile black rockfish Sebastes cheni in a seagrass and macroalgal bed in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan: estimation of the economic value of a nursery

Production and prey source of juvenile black rockfish Sebastes cheni in a seagrass and macroalgal bed in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan: estimation of the economic value of a nursery

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

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