Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany

Abstract

Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways.

Social Life Cycle Approach as a Tool for Promoting the Market Uptake of Bio-Based Products from a Consumer Perspective

“…In this regard, although it was stressed during the focus group exercise and expert interviews that consumers still have very little understanding of "bio-based" as a concept [62], they are at the same time aware of the higher pricing of bio-based products in comparison with more traditional products. In line with the literature (see [61,63]), we found that the willingness to pay represents a key factor. More specifically, the health and safety of consumers appears to be the factor that most influences the consumer's willingness to pay.…”

“…To this end, an SLCA therefore becomes crucial to compare "options, especially when complex supply chains are involved" [59]. In fact, for a market uptake of bio-based products, certain necessary conditions must be achieved, not only in terms of the implementation of appropriate policies (see, e.g., [17,60]) but also on the conditions that relate directly to consumer acceptability (see [61]). …”

Modelling and Tools Supporting the Transition to a Bioeconomy

“…Appelrath et al 2016). A good example of bioeconomy-related qualitative scenarios is OECD (2009) (Kovacs 2015;Hagemann et al 2016).…”

Environmental and Ecological Aspects in the Overall Assessment of Bioeconomy

“…solvent or supercritical water extraction, hydrolysis of the biomass, resulting in valuable bio-based substances from technological batches from biofuel or food production technologies (Naik et al 2010;Nattrass et al 2016;Snyder 2016). This is supported by the European Bioeconomy Panel and the SCAR Strategic Working Group of the European Commission (EC 2014), and is best exemplified by the cascade use of biomass in the wood industry (Scarlat et al 2015;Hagemann et al 2016). Chemicals/plastics and pharmaceuticals so far represent only 10% of the annual turnover of the bio-based sector (Piotrowski et al 2016), yet this may be considered the most promising segment within the sector, as bio-based chemicals are being produced in closed system technologies, representing the lowest hazard to the environment.…”