Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

Maycock, Amanda C.; Ineson, Sarah; Gray, Lesley J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Anstey, James; Lockwood, Mike; Butchart, Neal; Hardiman, Steven C.; Mitchell, Dann; Osprey, Scott

doi:10.1002/2014jd022022

Cited by 47 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…However, it is becoming increasingly evident that its solar-cycle variability in the UV part of the spectrum may be too low compared to updated and more recent SSI reconstructions by models such as NRLSSI2 (Coddington et al, 2016) and SATIRE (Yeo et al, 2014). Recent studies have emphasized the sensitivity to UV forcing changes due to top-down effects (Ermolli et al, 2013;Langematz et al, 2013;Thieblemont et al, 2015;Maycock et al, 2015;Ball et al, 2016), thereby stressing the need for a state-of-the-art representation of the SSI, and in particular the UV band, in the CMIP6 solar forcing recommendation. For that reason, we will focus on the SSI uncertainty and possible impacts of the higher SSI variability in CMIP6 with respect to the CMIP5 solar forcing recommendation (http://solarisheppa.geomar.de/cmip5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, it has become better established that there is a solar response in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and NAO from the top-down mechanism (Shindell et al, 2001;Kodera, 2002;Matthes et al, 2006;Woollings et al, 2010;Lockwood et al, 2010;Ineson et al, 2011;Langematz et al, 2013;Maycock et al, 2015;Thieblemont et al, 2015). Earlier models often employed a lower vertical domain, missing key physical processes by which solar signals in the stratosphere couple to surface winter climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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“…We call the scenarios "weak" and "strong" for clear distinction, though it must be noted that both scenarios actually represent stronger irradiance reductions than those generally assumed previous studies Maycock et al, 2015;Meehl et al, 2013;Mokhov et al, 2008) and by the IPCC. As described by Meehl et al (2013), previous estimates regarding the TSI decrease during the Maunder Minimum compared to present-day values range from somewhere close to present 11-year solar minima, to reductions of 0.15% to 0.3% below present solar minima all 5 the way to more than 0.4% below present solar minima derived by Shapiro et al (2011) and applied here in the SD and SDR scenarios.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They found that the reduction of solar irradiance of about 0.13% would globally cool the 30 surface by around 0.1 K for the second half of 21 st century. Maycock et al (2015) used the same model and applied a decrease in total solar irradiance and UV over the second half of 21 st century of 0.12% and 0.85% respectively, compared to present values. They found that the decrease in solar activity would reduce global annual near surface temperature by around 0.1 K Atmos.…”

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confidence: 99%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov²,

Anet³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21 st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21 st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-10 MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000 -2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W/m 2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also 15 projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15% of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21 st and around 25% at the end of 22 nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8%, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from 20 anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22 nd century or later.

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“…We note there is considerable observational and modelling evidence for an increased frequency of relatively cold European winters during low solar activity (Lockwood, 2010b;Lockwood et al, 2011;Ineson et al, 2015;Maycock et al, 2015). It is important to note that such regional effects primarily involve a redistribution of heat rather than a net change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

Owens

Lockwood

Hawkins

et al. 2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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-The Maunder minimum (MM) was a period of extremely low solar activity from approximately AD 1650 to 1715. In the solar physics literature, the MM is sometimes associated with a period of cooler global temperatures, referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus taken as compelling evidence of a large, direct solar influence on climate. In this study, we bring together existing simulation and observational studies, particularly the most recent solar activity and paleoclimate reconstructions, to examine this relation. Using northern hemisphere surface air temperature reconstructions, the LIA can be most readily defined as an approximately 480 year period spanning AD 1440-1920, although not all of this period was notably cold. While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

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Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes

Cited by 47 publications

References 77 publications

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

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