Possible influence of Arctic oscillation on precipitation along the East Asian rain belt during boreal spring

Qu, Jingxuan; Gong, Daoyi; Mao, Rui; Yang, Jing; Li, Sang

doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1900-0

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Studies suggest that there is a significant relationship between AO and precipitation [68][69][70][71]. Qu et al [72] noted that during the positive (negative) phase of AO, precipitation around East Asia tends to be less-than-normal (more-than-normal). Li et al [73] found a significant correlation between AO behavior and drought in the Luanhe River basin.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

Yue

Liu

et al. 2021

PLoS ONE

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The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China are investigated, using monthly meteorological data from 140 stations over the period 1970–2014. The study area was divided into three regions using hierarchical cluster analysis based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated for each station on 3-month and 12-month time scales. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope method were applied to determine the trends for annual and seasonal SPEI time series. Periodic features of drought conditions in each sub-region and possible relationship with large-scale climate patterns were respectively identified using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and cross wavelet transform. The results show mitigations in spring and winter droughts and a significant increasing trend in autumn drought. On the annual scale, droughts became more severe and more intense in the western regions but were mitigated in the eastern region. CWT analysis showed that droughts in Northeast China occur predominantly in 14- to 42-month or 15- to 60-month cycles. Annual and seasonal droughts have 2- to 6-year cycles over the three defined regions. Cross wavelet analysis also shows that the statistically significant influence of large-scale climate patterns (the Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Polar–Eurasian Pattern) on drought in Northeast China is concentrated in a 16- to 50-month period, possibly causing drought variability in the different regions. The Southern Oscillation, Polar–Eurasia pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are significantly correlated with drought on decadal scales (around 120-month period). The findings of this study will provide valuable reference for regional drought mitigation and drought prediction.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

Yue

Liu

et al. 2021

PLoS ONE

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“…The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a negative correlation with the East Asia Winter Monsoon ( r =− 0.5, 99% level) (L. Wang and Chen, ), spring rainfall across eastern China ( r =− 0.44, 99% level) (Qu et al, ) and shows a weakly significant positive relationship ( r < 0.1, 99% level) with rainfall across the Tianshan Mountains in the west of the country (Zhong et al, ). Qu et al (, and references therein) discuss mechanisms for this connection relating to direct AO interactions with the westerly jet stream and indirect interactions via influences on local convection.…”

Section: Atmospheric Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Steptoe

Jones

Fox

2018

Reviews of Geophysics

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Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere‐ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer‐reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

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“…1; Huang et al 2007;Lei and Duan 2011;Jin and Guan 2017). Precipitation in North China is also significantly influenced by remote midlatitude circulations via the Silk Road pattern (SRP) and Pacific-Japan pattern, among others (Lu et al 2002;Wang and He 2015;Qu et al 2017). The atmospheric circulation also plays a role in linking the regional precipitation and other remote climate factors such as the Supplemental information related to this paper is available at the Journals Online website: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0045.s1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decisive Atmospheric Circulation Indices for July–August Precipitation in North China Based on Tree Models

Xuan

Zeng

Xia

et al. 2019

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns.

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Possible influence of Arctic oscillation on precipitation along the East Asian rain belt during boreal spring

Cited by 16 publications

References 39 publications

Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

Decisive Atmospheric Circulation Indices for July–August Precipitation in North China Based on Tree Models

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