Spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its correlation with climate indices in Northeast China

Abstract

The spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Northeast China are investigated, using monthly meteorological data from 140 stations over the period 1970–2014. The study area was divided into three regions using hierarchical cluster analysis based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated for each station on 3-month and 12-month time scales. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope method were applied to determine the trends for annual and seasonal SPEI time series. Periodic features of drought conditions in each sub-region and possible relationship with large-scale climate patterns were respectively identified using the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and cross wavelet transform. The results show mitigations in spring and winter droughts and a significant increasing trend in autumn drought. On the annual scale, droughts became more severe and more intense in the western regions but were mitigated in the eastern region. CWT analysis showed that droughts in Northeast China occur predominantly in 14- to 42-month or 15- to 60-month cycles. Annual and seasonal droughts have 2- to 6-year cycles over the three defined regions. Cross wavelet analysis also shows that the statistically significant influence of large-scale climate patterns (the Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Polar–Eurasian Pattern) on drought in Northeast China is concentrated in a 16- to 50-month period, possibly causing drought variability in the different regions. The Southern Oscillation, Polar–Eurasia pattern, and Arctic Oscillation are significantly correlated with drought on decadal scales (around 120-month period). The findings of this study will provide valuable reference for regional drought mitigation and drought prediction.

Temporal hydrological drought clustering varies with climate and land-surface processes

“…While up to 10% of the catchment show temporal clustering of hydrological droughts, only up to 2% of the catchments show significant temporal clustering of meteorological droughts (figure 4). Such relatively weak clustering of meteorological droughts is in contrast to findings of previous studies which documented meteorological drought variations at multiyear to multi-decadal time scales by assessing interannual and decadal drought variability (Ionita et al 2012, Yue et al 2021. These differences in the temporal clustering behavior of meteorological drought may be explained by the different methods and datasets used for the analyses.…”

“…For meteorological drought, alternations between drought-rich and drought-poor periods have been documented at multi-year (Moreira et al 2015, Noone et al 2017, Yue et al 2021, decadal (Ionita et al 2012, Tong et al 2018, and multi-decadal time scales (Tanguy et al 2021). However, the existence of meteorological drought clustering is not unequivocal as some studies also provide evidence for a lack of cyclicity in precipitation deficits (Pelletier andTurcotte 1997, Bunde et al 2013).…”

Historical Trends and Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Based on SPI and SPEI Over the Past 70 years in China (1951–2020)

“…Urban heat island effect may affect urban precipitation patterns. For example, in the Yangtze River urban belt in China, the downstream propagation of urban heat island signal alters the general circulation pattern, thermal distribution, and moisture transportation at local and regional scales (Wan et al, 2013;Liu et al, 2021) The urbanization pattern of cities has key effect on precipitation intensity and give rise to extreme precipitation. On other hand, high temperatures increase evaporation rates, while cooling requires more evaporation, further exacerbating drought conditions (Liu et al, 2020b;Ma et al, 2021).…”

“…In general, drought may be caused by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns. ENSO refers to the natural phenomenon of abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific (Yue et al 2021). This phenomenon usually occurs every 2-7 years and has important impacts on the global climate system (Song et al, 2018).…”

Floods and droughts: a multivariate perspective on hazard estimation

“…The occurrence of multi-year precipitation deficits has for example been documented for France (Vidal et al, 2010), Central Europe (Moravec et al, 2021), and the United States (Goodrich, 2007;Diffenbaugh et al, 2015;Abatan et al, 2017;Bales et al, 2018) and the occurrence of multi-year streamflow deficits for different parts of Europe (Parry et al, 2012;Folland et al, 2015;Hanel et al, 2018;Brunner and Tallaksen, 2019) and Chile (Alvarez-Garreton et al, 2021). A second body of literature shows that both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences are highly variable in time with alternations between drought-rich and drought-poor periods at multi-year (Moreira et al, 2015;Noone et al, 2017;Yue et al, 2021), decadal (Ionita et al, 2012;Tong et al, 2018;Barker et al, 2019), and multi-decadal time scales (Tanguy et al, 2021). However, some other studies also provide contrasting evidence by showing a lack of cyclicity in precipitation deficits (Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997;Bunde et al, 2013).…”