Post-Soviet farmland abandonment, forest recovery, and carbon sequestration in western Ukraine

Abstract

Land use is a critical factor in the global carbon cycle, but land-use effects on carbon fluxes are poorly understood in many regions. One such region is Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where land-use intensity decreased substantially after the collapse of socialism, and farmland abandonment and forest expansion have been widespread. Our goal was to examine how land-use trends affected net carbon fluxes in western Ukraine (57 000 km 2 ) and to assess the region's future carbon sequestration potential. Using satellite-based forest disturbance and farmland abandonment rates from 1988 to 2007, historic forest resource statistics, and a carbon bookkeeping model, we reconstructed carbon fluxes from land use in the 20th century and assessed potential future carbon fluxes until 2100 for a range of forest expansion and logging scenarios. Our results suggested that the low-point in forest cover occurred in the 1920s. Forest expansion between 1930 and 1970 turned the region from a carbon source to a sink, despite intensive logging during socialism. The collapse of the Soviet Union created a vast, but currently largely untapped carbon sequestration potential (up to $150 Tg C in our study region). Future forest expansion will likely maintain or even increase the region's current sink strength of 1.48 Tg C yr À1 . This may offer substantial opportunities for offsetting industrial carbon emissions and for rural development in regions with otherwise diminishing income opportunities. Throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, millions of hectares of farmland were abandoned after the collapse of socialism; thus similar reforestation opportunities may exist in other parts of this region.

Human impacts drive a global topographic signature in tree cover

“…Forest regrowth, on the other hand, reflects socioeconomic dynamics such as the globalization of agriculture, politically determined re-and afforestation programmes and migration to urban areas and the associated land abandonment 8,9,29 . Our results show that these human impacts together drive a global topographic signature in tree cover.…”

“…Clearing continues to threaten many remaining forests 7 , but land abandonment and afforestation are leading to forest expansion in other areas 8,9 . Conservation planning, prudent economic development and climate models 10 depend on accurate projections of tree cover under future land use and climate scenarios 11,12 .…”

Mapping Land Management Regimes in Western Ukraine Using Optical and SAR Data

“…Furthermore, large fields were converted to small fields as subsistence agriculture became important after 1991 [66,68,70,71]. Recently, global trends in food prices have led to a growing interest in the region, which triggered the recultivation of much farmland and a renaissance of industrial agriculture, including a consolidation of small fields into large ones [72].…”

Forest carbon projects in the Ukrainian Carpathians: an assessment of potential community impacts and benefits

“…Meanwhile, southwestern Ukraine passed between Hungary and Czechoslovakia before becoming part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1946. Once part of the Soviet Union, private land was expropriated and collectivized, and forestry became more intensive with harvest rates peaking in the 1950s (Kuemmerle et al 2011). This history contributes to a mix of ethnic and cultural backgrounds in the region.…”

“…Although often overlooked, there is potential for forest carbon projects in the temperate forests of Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in areas where forest cover is recovering from past land uses (Kuemmerle et al 2009, Kuemmerle et al 2011). Many of these countries are post-socialist, transitional economies, still undergoing or recently emerged from economic liberalization and privatization.…”