Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA

Fogarty, Michael J.; Incze, Lewis S.; Hayhoe, K.; Mountain, David; Manning, James P.

doi:10.1007/s11027-007-9131-4

Cited by 116 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…River herring were prevalent in seasonal pulse events as juveniles, dropping into the coastal zone in the later summer and fall (K. Wilson, personal observation). We directly observed juvenile river herring being consumed by cod, mackerel, and pollock in the Midcoast, confirming the assertions of Field (1914) (Fogarty et al 2008;Pershing et al 2015) and alterations in the ecosystem may produce ecological bottle necks for once abundant predatory fishes (Swain and Sinclair 2000;Walters and Kitchell 2001). Indeed, increasing amounts of energy has been concentrated in less commercially desirable components of the food web (Auster and Link 2009;Link et al 2009;Lotze and Milewski 2004).…”

Section: River Restoration and Nearshore Food Webssupporting

confidence: 73%

Diets and Stable Isotope Derived Food Web Structure of Fishes from the Inshore Gulf of Maine

Willis

Wilson

Johnson

2016

Estuaries and Coasts

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In the nearshore Gulf of Maine, a combination of factors (overfishing, ecosystem change, and ocean warming) is thought to govern groundfish recovery. We analyzed feeding habits of demersal predatory fish from Midcoast Maine (abundant river herring) and Passamaquoddy Bay (low river herring) in eastern Maine, using stomach content and stable isotope analyses, to determine the prevalence of river herring (alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus, and blueback herring, A. aestivalis) in nearshore (<4.5 km) groundfish diets. Invertebrates dominated all predator diets at all sites. At Midcoast sites, catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of Atlantic cod was higher, and fish predators showed a strong seasonal pattern in river herring consumptio n co mpared t o Passamaqouddy Bay. Cod, pollock (Pollachius virens), and sculpins (Myoxocephalus octodecimspinosus and M. scorpius) from Midcoast sites tended to be enriched in δ 15 N relative to Passamaquoddy Bay. Contrasting fast vs. slow turnover tissue (fin vs. muscle) indicated that focal species migrated or food availability changed seasonally and Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in Passamaquoddy Bay were assimilating into a trophically depleted food web.We posit that lack of forage fish in Passamaquoddy Bay contributed to conditions that encourage an invertebrate based diet. River herring are also an order of magnitude less abundant in Passamaquoddy Bay than at Midcoast sites, limiting the availability of this seasonal food source. River restoration may contribute to recovery of groundfish stocks nearshore by increasing the availability of high lipid, seasonally available prey.

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Section: River Restoration and Nearshore Food Webssupporting

confidence: 73%

Diets and Stable Isotope Derived Food Web Structure of Fishes from the Inshore Gulf of Maine

Willis

Wilson

Johnson

2016

Estuaries and Coasts

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“…All of these resources-fish, invertebrates, marine mammals, sea turtles, plants, habitats, and other ecosystem components-are being impacted by changing ocean and climate conditions in the region. The productivity of some species has been linked to temperature, with some species exhibiting decreased productivity related to warming (e.g., Atlantic cod, Fogarty et al 2008; winter flounder, R. Bell et al 2014) and other species exhibiting increased productivity (e.g., Atlantic croaker, Hare et al 2010). Still other species have shown no change in productivity during the recent period of warming (e.g., summer flounder, R. Bell et al 2014).…”

Section: Sidebar 31: Changes In the Northeast Us Shelf Ecosystem Amentioning

confidence: 99%

State of the Climate in 2016

Aaron-Morrison¹,

Ackerman²,

Adams³

et al. 2017

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

154

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“…The potential future impacts for climatesensitive sectors, including coastal regions, marine fisheries, forests, agriculture, winter recreation, and human health, have been addressed by a set of previous studies (Frumhoff et al 2008;Kirshen et al 2008;Fogarty et al 2008;Iverson et al 2008). Given the distinctive regional impacts and responses to climate change, it is of considerable importance to investigate possible future climate change at the regional scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

2014

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A high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is used to simulate climate of the recent past and to project future climate change across the northeastern US. Different types of uncertainties in climate simulations are examined by driving the RCM with different boundary data, applying different emissions scenarios, and running an ensemble of simulations with different initial conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and K-means clustering analysis are applied to divide the northeastern US region into four climatologically different zones based on the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation variability. The RCM simulations tend to overestimate SAT, especially over the northern part of the domain in winter and over the western part in summer. Statistically significant increases in seasonal SAT under both higher and lower emissions scenarios over the whole RCM domain suggest the robustness of future warming. Most parts of the northeastern US region will experience increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer precipitation, though the changes are not statistically significant. The greater magnitude of the projected temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century under the higher emissions scenario emphasizes the essential role of emissions choices in determining the potential future climate change.

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Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA

Abstract: Climate change impacts, Gulf of Maine, Cod, Bottom water temperatures,

Cited by 116 publications

References 28 publications

Diets and Stable Isotope Derived Food Web Structure of Fishes from the Inshore Gulf of Maine

Diets and Stable Isotope Derived Food Web Structure of Fishes from the Inshore Gulf of Maine

State of the Climate in 2016

Climate change in the northeastern US: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

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