Potential Climate-Driven Impacts on the Distribution of Generalist Treefrogs in South America

Vasconcelos, T.; Nascimento, Bruno Tayar Marinho do

doi:10.1655/herpetologica-d-14-00064

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…All in all, the climate change is not predicted to change the fact that the highest anuran richness in CER is found in the southern rim of the hotspot, but a considerable species loss is expected in the western and southwestern areas with current moderately‐to‐high richness. This region is in contact with the lowlands of the Pantanal floodplain, the largest contiguous extent of this habitat type on Earth that had been recently predicted to have no climatically suitable areas by 2050 for four generalist treefrogs as a consequence of the climate change effects (Vasconcelos & Nascimento, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, although most CER grids are expected to lose species, most of the northeastern grids are expected to gain in Earth that had been recently predicted to have no climatically suitable areas by 2050 for four generalist treefrogs as a consequence of the climate change effects (Vasconcelos & Nascimento, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ecological Niche Models generally characterize the ecological niche of a species usually considering its climatic preferences based on known occurrence records (Elith & Burgman, 2002). Further, the species climatic niche is projected on a bioclimatic envelope of interest, which can be a different geographic region (Giovanelli, Haddad, & Alexandrino, 2008) or different climate scenarios of the same geographic extent (Vasconcelos & Nascimento, 2016). Even whether these ENMs present commission errors (i.e., the model predicts species presence where there is no occurrence record), these errors may be predictions of interest if the intuit is to look for potential or abiotically suitable areas of a species in future climate change scenarios (Araújo & Peterson, 2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Although the use of ENMs to assess the impacts of climate change on the species distribution has been predominantly performed on a species-specific basis (e.g., Martins, Silva, de Marco, & Melo, 2015;Nabout, Oliveira, Magalhães, Terribile, & de Almeida, 2011;Vasconcelos, 2014;Vasconcelos & Nascimento, 2016), there is an increasing use of ENMs to generate richness estimates from each species model of a given taxa when occurrence records are available for a high number of species (e.g., Brown & Yoder, 2015;García-Roselló et al, 2014;Vasconcelos, Rodríguez, & Hawkins, 2012). In such cases, not only the species individual response is evaluated, but different community ecology metrics can be assessed regarding the influence of different climate change scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

Vasconcelos

Nascimento

Prado

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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We performed Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to generate climatically suitable areas for anurans in the Brazilian hotspots, the Atlantic Forest (AF), and Cerrado (CER), considering the baseline and future climate change scenarios, to evaluate the differences in the alpha and beta diversity metrics across time. We surveyed anuran occurrence records and generated ENMs for 350 and 155 species in the AF and CER. The final predictive maps for the baseline, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios, based on an ensemble approach, were used to estimate the alpha (local species richness) and beta diversity metrics (local contribution to beta diversity index and its decomposition into replacement and nestedness components) in each ~50 × 50 km grid cell of the hotspots. Climate change is not expected to drastically change the distribution of the anuran richness gradients, but to negatively impact their whole extensions (i.e., cause species losses throughout the hotspots), except the northeastern CER that is expected to gain in species richness. Areas having high beta diversity are expected to decrease in northeastern CER, whereas an increase is expected in southeastern/southwestern CER under climate change. High beta diversity areas are expected to remain in the same AF locations as the prediction of the baseline climate, but the predominance of species loss under climate change is expected to increase the nestedness component in the hotspot. These results suggest that the lack of similar climatically suitable areas for most species will be the main challenge that species will face in the future. Finally, the application of the present framework to a wide range of taxa is an important step for the conservation of threatened biomes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

Vasconcelos

Nascimento

Prado

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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“…We created a binary map from each modeling output. The outputs considered the frequency of occurrences higher than 50 % (e.g., Vasconcelos and Nascimento 2016;Loyola et al 2013) .T h eb i n a r ym a p sw e r et h e n overlapped; therefore, the final map of each species (separated by the climate-only and climate-habitat procedures) represents a frequency histogram with the number of models forecasting the presence of the species at any given point (Arau´jo and New 2007). Therefore, each species has a map based on the combination of a maximum of six algorithms or the total number of algorithm predictions with an AUC >0.75 that remained for the ensemble procedure.…”

Section: Ensemble Forecasting and Final Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing how habitat loss restricts the geographic range of Neotropical anurans

Vasconcelos

Doro

2016

Ecological Research

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Habitat loss and fragmentation exert unquestionable negative effects in a wide range of taxa on both regional and local scales. However, there is a debate over whether habitat change impacts geographic species distribution. We assess how habitat loss restricts large‐scale species distribution on a geographic scale for four South American anurans that are known to occur in well conserved habitats, yet which are absent in others that are close by and more degraded. We used occurrence records of each species in Brazil and performed different modeling algorithms to compare ensemble distribution models generated by two different sets of predictors: a climate‐only versus a climate‐habitat procedure. We found that the distribution area predicted by the climate‐only procedure was larger than that of the climate‐habitat procedure for all species. The areas not predicted by the climate‐habitat but predicted by the climate‐only procedure for all species are commonly located in inland areas in southeastern Brazil, which coincides with areas that have suffered the most from habitat loss in the country. Plotting the predictions against well‐surveyed areas where the species have not been recorded, we found evidence that habitat loss may have restricted the current geographic ranges of Hypsiboas faber and Rhinella ornata. Finally, modeling approaches incorporating habitat landscape metrics, particularly for habitat‐specialist species, may be a helpful tool for identifying areas that harbored these species before deforestation took place.

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Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation Options

Vale

Arias

Ortega

et al. 2021

The Atlantic Forest

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Potential Climate-Driven Impacts on the Distribution of Generalist Treefrogs in South America

Cited by 18 publications

References 47 publications

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

Expected impacts of climate change threaten the anuran diversity in the Brazilian hotspots

Assessing how habitat loss restricts the geographic range of Neotropical anurans

Climate Change and Biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest: Best Climatic Models, Predicted Changes and Impacts, and Adaptation Options

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