Potential Distribution of and Sensitivity Analysis for Urochloa panicoides Weed Using Modeling: An Implication of Invasion Risk Analysis for China and Europe

Abstract

Urochloapanicoides P. Beauv. is considered one of the most harmful weeds in the United States and Australia. It is invasive in Pakistan, Mexico, and Brazil, but its occurrence is hardly reported in China and European countries. Species distribution models enable the measurement of the impact of climate change on plant growth, allowing for risk analysis, effective management, and invasion prevention. The objective of this study was to develop current and future climate models of suitable locations for U. panicoides and to determine the most influential climatic parameters. Occurrence data and biological information on U. panicoides were collected, and climatic parameters were used to generate the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) and to perform sensitivity analysis. The future projections for 2050, 2080, and 2100 were modeled under the A2 SRES scenario using the Global Climate Model, CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS). The potential distribution of U. panicoides coincided with the data collected, and the reliability of the final model was demonstrated. The generated model identified regions where the occurrence was favorable, despite few records of the species. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive parameters of the model were related to temperature, humidity, and cold stress. Future projections predict reductions in climate suitability for U. panicoides in Brazil, Australia, India, and Africa, and an increase in suitability in Mexico, the United States, European countries, and China. The rise in suitability of China and Europe is attributed to predicted climate change, including reduction in cold stress. From the results obtained, preventive management strategies can be formulated against the spread of U. panicoides, avoiding economic and biodiversity losses.

Ecological Niche Modeling of Invasive Macrophyte (Urochloa subquadripara) and Co-Occurrence with South American Natives

“…The lower and upper-temperature limits (DV0 and DV3) for the growth of U. subquadripara were established at 4 and 39 • C. The lower temperature was defined as reported for species of the same genus U. panicoides [39] and from the best fit to the global distribution of U. subquadripara. The upper temperature was set at 39 • C because the species had a priority distribution in tropical and subtropical regions, with occurrence reported in Autazes (Brazil) [58] and Córdoba (Colombia) [59], where the maximum temperatures reached 38 and 39 • C, respectively.…”

“…Therefore, the species does not occur in arid climates but in semi-arid climate regions (BSh). In addition, species of the genus Urochloa have cold stress as the main distribution limiting factor [39].…”

“…The CLIMEX software generates SDMs from the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) based on the growth and stress parameters of the species under study [38]. This methodology has been widely used for modeling the ecological niche of invasive species and weeds [39][40][41][42][43].…”