Potential distribution of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in Northeastern Mexico

Martínez-Calderas, Jesús M.; Rosas-Rosas, Octavio C.; Palacio-Núñez, Jorge; Martínez-Montoya, Juan F.; Olmos-Oropeza, Genaro; Tarango-Arámbula, Luis A.

doi:10.12933/therya-15-304

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…As Ghoddousi et al (2020) identified, ignoring human–wildlife conflicts when identifying corridors may result in funneling dispersing individuals into ecological traps if dispersing through human‐dominated regions increases mortality. Conditions in far northeastern Mexico adjacent to Texas are believed unsuitable for ocelots (Martínez‐Calderas et al 2015, Ocañas‐García et al 2018), meaning dispersing ocelots from south Texas would have to safely travel about 300 km to join the Tamaulipas population of ocelots in northeastern Mexico. In addition to elevated risk of mortality involved by crossing numerous highways, a dispersal of this distance would be unlikely.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating population connectivity and targeting conservation action for an endangered cat

et al. 2021

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Dispersal of animals among populations helps to increase genetic variability and population viability. The endangered ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in south Texas persists in two small populations separated by 30 km and cutoff from populations in northeastern Mexico. Despite the relatively short distance separating the two south Texas populations, movement between them has been limited, leading researchers to believe landscape connectivity is poor in the region. We developed habitat suitability maps using remote sensing and GPS-collared ocelots and ran connectivity analyses to assess current habitat linkages, important areas for conservation, and areas where connectivity could be improved through habitat restoration. First, we developed a resource selection function using random forest models and GPS data from ten ocelots collared at Laguna Atascosa National Wildlife Refuge combined with spatial layers derived from LiDAR and remotely sensed imagery. We then used these results as the basis for a cost surface layer. Using this layer, we examined habitat connectivity using least-cost and circuit theory methods. We evaluated linkages by cost of movement, identified areas important for maintaining existing connectivity, and ranked areas where restoration would have the greatest benefit to connectivity. We found that core habitats within the two populations were relatively well connected but connectivity between the two populations was poor. By identifying areas currently important for connectivity and areas with the greatest benefit to ocelots if restored, these results will help inform land acquisition and restoration planning to improve ocelot conservation in south Texas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating population connectivity and targeting conservation action for an endangered cat

et al. 2021

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“…Previous studies have used habitat‐suitability models to predict the distribution of small and medium Neotropical felids using climatic and topographic information as a proxy for habitat characteristics (Cuyckens, ; Espinosa et al., ; Martínez‐Calderas et al., , ). However, for studies conducted at regional or more bounded scales, where climatic variability is minimal, other factors may became more relevant for predicting and understanding current species distributions (Elith & Leathwick, ; Scheldeman & van Zonneveld, ), especially when focusing on human‐modified landscapes and species affected by human persecution like the carnivores in the Atlantic Forest (De Angelo, Paviolo & Di Bitetti, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cats under cover: Habitat models indicate a high dependency on woodlands by Atlantic Forest felids

et al. 2019

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Four Neotropical small and medium felids—the ocelot, jaguarundi, margay, and southern tiger cat—have overlapping geographic distributions in the endangered Atlantic Forest. Local studies show that these felids avoid areas with high human impact, but the three smaller ones use human‐modified areas more frequently than do ocelots. To understand how landscape changes affect the habitat distribution of these four felids in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, we used maximum entropy models to analyze the effect of environmental and anthropogenic factors. We estimated niche breadth and overlap among these felids. The conversion of the native forest to land uses without trees was the most important variable that determined the habitat distribution of the four species. For all four species, the optimal habitat covered about 1/3 of the study area and corresponds mainly to the native forest areas. Nearly 50% of these areas had some level of protection. The niche width was higher for the small felids than for ocelots. Niche overlap was high for all species pairs, but higher among the small felids and lower for each of these with the ocelot. The four felids were negatively affected by native forest loss, with ocelots being more sensitive than the smaller felids. The conversion of unprotected forest areas to other types of land uses would imply a greater habitat loss for these felids. The protection of current remnants of Atlantic Forest in Argentina is important for the long‐term conservation of the four felids. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

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“…In a similar study on the southern edge of the ocelot's range in Brazil, Araújo et al (2021) found temperature and precipitation variables to be important in their study: mean temperature of the wettest quarter (BIO8, the third most important variable in this study), precipitation of the coldest quarter (BIO19, the least important variable in this study), and temperature annual range (BIO7, not included in this study due to correlations). In a related study in northeastern Mexico, Martínez-Calderas et al (2015) found three climatic variables to be important in explaining ocelot distribution: precipitation during the wettest month (BIO13, the fourth most important variable in this study), precipitation during the wettest quarter (BIO16, not included in this study due to correlations), and precipitation during the coldest quarter (BIO19, the least important variable in this study). Differences between our paper and the two previous studies may have been in part due to methodological differences in how variable importance was calculated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…By using occurrence data collected across the entire geographic range of the ocelot, our ensemble model likely more accurately represents the range of bioclimatic conditions in which this species can persist. The two earlier studies incorporating climate predictors of ocelot distribution were conducted in regional geographies, one in northeastern Mexico (Martínez-Calderas et al, 2015) and one in southern Brazil (Araújo et al, 2021), toward the geographic peripheries of the ocelot's range. By including the whole of the species' range, our study is better able to tease out the climatic associations with ocelot occurrence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Across their range, although ocelots occur across a wide range of climatic zones (i.e., humid tropical, subtropical humid, temperate montane, and semiarid), information on bioclimatic thresholds affecting distribution is scarce (García‐R et al, 2019; Martínez‐Calderas et al, 2015; Rorabaugh et al, 2020; Satter et al, 2018; Veals et al, 2022). By using occurrence data collected across the entire geographic range of the ocelot, our ensemble model likely more accurately represents the range of bioclimatic conditions in which this species can persist.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate envelope modeling for ocelot conservation planning: peering inside the black box

Lehnen

Lombardi

2023

Ecosphere

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Climate envelope models have been used to evaluate the predicted impacts of climate change on species of concern and can be a useful planning tool in determining the long-term suitability of current habitat and potential introduction sites. However, due to model complexity, these models have generally been seen as "black boxes" when it comes to understanding why they make the predictions they do. In this study, we examined current potential ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) habitat using publicly available ocelot records and CHELSA bioclimatic variables combined in an ensemble model approach. We then predicted future potential ocelot habitat under three different emission scenarios using five climate models produced at a 30 arcsec grid cell size. To better understand what was driving model predictions, we used a variety of model interpretability approaches, including variable importance values, Shapley additive explanations, interaction detection, and a local surrogate model. These approaches revealed that ocelot potential habitat was associated with at least 233 mm of precipitation during the warmest quarter (BIO18) and at least 146 mm of precipitation during the wettest month (BIO13). Shapley additive explanations, applied to four protected areas across the species range, were valuable for understanding which climatic predictors drove predicted ocelot habitat at a local scale, with the protected areas with the highest predicted values having consistently more precipitation and higher temperatures. These tools are model agnostic and can be used to assess model predictions for biological validity and to further understand potential underlying relationships. As climate change shifts species range distributions, species distribution models and the tools to interpret them may become increasingly valuable, particularly on the leading edge of range expansion.

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Potential distribution of the ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) in Northeastern Mexico

Cited by 9 publications

References 38 publications

Evaluating population connectivity and targeting conservation action for an endangered cat

Evaluating population connectivity and targeting conservation action for an endangered cat

Cats under cover: Habitat models indicate a high dependency on woodlands by Atlantic Forest felids

Climate envelope modeling for ocelot conservation planning: peering inside the black box

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