Potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants under climate changes

Abstract

BackgroundArid and semi-arid regions account for about 40% of the world’s land surface area, and are the most sensitive areas to climate change, leading to a dramatic expansion of arid regions in recent decades. Ephemeral plants are crucial herbs in this area and are very sensitive to climate change, but it is still unclear which factors can determine the distribution of ephemeral plants and how the distribution of ephemeral plants responds to future climate change across the globe.AimsUnderstanding the impact of climate change on ephemeral plant distribution is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation.MethodsThis study explored the potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid regions (cold desert, hot desert, and deciduous forest) on a global scale using the MaxEnt software. We used species global occurrence data and 30 environmental factors in scientific collections.ResultsOur results showed that (1) the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was higher than 0.95, indicating that the MaxEnt model’s simulation accuracy for each species was good; (2) distributions of cold desert and deciduous forest species were mainly determined by soil pH and annual mean temperature; the key factor that determines the distribution of hot desert species was precipitation of the driest month; and (3) the potential distribution of ephemeral plants in the cold desert was increased under one-third of climate scenarios; in the hot desert, the potential suitable distribution for Anastatica hierochuntica was decreased in more than half of the climate scenarios, but Trigonella arabica was increased in more than half of the climate scenarios. In deciduous forests, the ephemeral plant Crocus alatavicus decreased in nearly nine-tenths of climate scenarios, and Gagea filiformis was increased in 75% of climate scenarios.ConclusionsThe potential suitable distributions of ephemeral plants in the different ecosystems were closely related to their specific adaptation strategies. These results contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the potential distribution pattern of some ephemeral plants in arid and semi-arid ecosystems.

Impacts of climate change on climatically suitable regions of two invasive Erigeron weeds in China

“…SSP245 and SSP370 mean medium forcing scenarios (radiative forcing becomes 4.5 and 7.0 W/m 2 in 2100). SSP585 means the highest forcing scenarios (radiative forcing reaches 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100) ( Lan et al., 2022 ). Soil salinity data (Esp and Ece) were provided by the FAO World Soil Database version 1.2 ( http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-databases/har-monized-world-soil-database-v12/en/ , accessed May 2023).…”

Fuling production areas in China: climate and distribution changes (A.D. 618–2100)

“…The MaxEnt software (version 3.4.3) was employed to import the distribution data (.csv) and the set of environmental variables (.asc). The following parameters were configured: jackknife analysis was used to assess the significance and contribution rate of the environmental variables; a forecast distribution diagram and an environmental response curve were generated; 25% of the occurrence data were randomly selected for testing; the output format was logistic, and the remaining parameters were set to their default values (Lan et al, 2022;Zhou et al, 2022). The modeling process was repeated 10 times, and the average of these repetitions was included in the output result file.…”

Predicting the geographical distribution and niche characteristics of Cotoneaster multiflorus based on future climate change

“…Since the last interglacial period, multiple global climate fluctuations have profoundly affected the vegetation and ice cover volume in most regions on the world ( Zhang et al., 2019 ). About 40% of the world’s land surface is arid or semi-arid, and with the continued warming in the second half of the 20th century, most parts of the world are experiencing a trend towards drought ( Dai, 2011 ; Haile et al., 2019 ; Lan et al., 2022 ). The Millennium Drought in Australia from 2002 to 2009 ( Van Dijk et al., 2013 ), the summer drought in Europe in 2003 ( Ciais et al., 2005 ), the East African drought in 2011 ( Lott et al., 2013 ), and the Mega-Drought in the Southwest United States from 2010 to 2012 ( Gleick and Heberger, 2012 ) were examples for this trend.…”