Potential effects of climate and emissions changes on surface ozone in the Chicago area

Lin, Jintai; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Huang, H. C.; Tao, Zhining; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin; Zhu, J.; Holloway, Tracey

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.09.004

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Over the USA, Lin et al (2010) and Lam et al (2011) showed that O 3 levels are expected to increase in areas already experiencing high O 3 concentrations under the current climate. They also noted that changes to precursor emissions have a larger impact than changes in meteorology associated with climate change.…”

Section: Lauwaet Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Belgium is one of the areas within Europe experiencing the highest levels of air pollution. A high-resolution (3 km) modelling experiment is employed to provide guidance to policymakers about expected air quality changes in the near future (2026)(2027)(2028)(2029)(2030)(2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035). The regional air quality model AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), driven by output from a regional climate model, is used to simulate several 10-year time slices to investigate the impact of climatic changes and different emission scenarios on near-surface O 3 concentrations, one of the key indices for air quality. Evaluation of the model against measurements from 34 observation stations shows that the AURORA model is capable of reproducing 10-year mean concentrations, daily cycles and spatial patterns. The results for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 emission scenario indicate that the mean surface O 3 concentrations are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to less O 3 titration by reduced NO x emissions. Applying an alternative emission scenario for Europe is found to have only a minor impact on the overall concentrations, which are dominated by the background changes. Climate change alone has a much smaller effect on the near-surface O 3 concentrations over Belgium than the projected emission changes. The very high horizontal resolution that is used in this study results in much improved spatial correlations and simulated peak concentrations compared to a standard 25 km simulation. An analysis of the number of peak episodes during summer revealed that the emission reductions in RCP4.5 result in a 25 % decrease of these peak episodes.

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Section: Lauwaet Et Almentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

et al. 2014

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“…Higher levels of ozone can have significant effects on human health, on agricultural crops, and on ecosystems (Confalonieri et al, 2007). See Lin et al (2010) for further discussion.…”

Section: Air Qualitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction: Assessing the effects of climate change on Chicago and the Great Lakes

Wuebbles

Hayhoe

Parzen³

2010

Journal of Great Lakes Research

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“…Local conditions such as the emissions of other O 3 precursors also have a significant effect on local O 3 production (Forkel and Knoche, 2006;Bell et al, 2007). Changes to precursor emissions have a larger impact on O 3 production than variations in meteorology associated with climate change (Racherla and Adams, 2009;Jacobson and Streets, 2009;Lin et al, 2010;, Kawase et al, 2011;Lam et al, 2011). In addition to interannual variability and the specifics of projected changes in physical climate at the regional scale, the effects of model resolution, boundary conditions, and chemical mechanisms as all contribute to the spread in projected changes in ozone (Avise et al, 2009;Racherla and Adams, 2008;Wu et al, 2008b;Forkel and Knoche, 2007).…”

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confidence: 99%

Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

2012

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Abstract. Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional airquality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6) scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM 2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM 2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here.The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions -that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6 emissions for 2050 resulted in an improved air-quality, with decreases in key pollutant concentrations, in acute human mortality associated with air-pollution, and in sulphur and ozone deposition to the ecosystem. The positive outcomes of the RCP 6 emissions reductions were found to be of greater magnitude than the negative outcomes of climate change alone. The RCP 6 scenario however resulted in an increase in the deposition of nitrogen, as a result of increased ammonia emissions expected in that scenario, compared to current ammonia emissions levels.The results of the study raise the possibility that simultaneous reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors may further reduce air pollution levels, with the added benefits of an immediate reduction in the impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health. Further scenarios to investigate this possibility are therefore recommended.

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Potential effects of climate and emissions changes on surface ozone in the Chicago area

Cited by 14 publications

References 26 publications

The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

The effect of climate change and emission scenarios on ozone concentrations over Belgium: a high-resolution model study for policy support

Introduction: Assessing the effects of climate change on Chicago and the Great Lakes

Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

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