Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies

Abstract

In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress—including modifications to animal management or housing—tend to increase production costs. We use operation‐level economic data coupled with finely‐scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects the technical efficiency of dairies across the United States. We then use this information to estimate the possible decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change‐induced heat stress under the simplifying assumptions that the production technology, location of production, and other factors are held constant. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat‐stress‐related production declines by 2030, with the largest declines occurring in the southern states.

The influence of weather conditions on dairy production

“…() use dummy variables to control for differences in climatic conditions in different geographical zones. To the best of our knowledge, only three published studies, all relatively recent and using data from the United States, analyze the impact of meteorological variables on dairy farm productive performance (Key and Sneeringer, ; Mukherjee et al., ; Qi et al., ).…”

Farm‐level determinants of product conversion: Organic milk production

“…The capital variable is a USDAcalculated estimate of capital recovery costs-defined as the cost of replacing capital investment in machinery and equipment plus the interest that leftover capital could have earned in an alternative investment (Key & Sneeringer, 2014). The inputs consist of milk cows (average herd size), land (acres operated), labor (total hours worked), feed (tons/year), capital (recovery cost), medicine (expenditure), and other inputs (expenditure).…”

“…Units are converted to tons/year and weighted by their expenditure share. The capital variable is a USDAcalculated estimate of capital recovery costs-defined as the cost of replacing capital investment in machinery and equipment plus the interest that leftover capital could have earned in an alternative investment (Key & Sneeringer, 2014). The medicine input includes expenditures on AI, branding, hormone injections, antibiotics, and other medical and veterinary services.…”

Food intake dependent and independent effects of heat stress on lactation and mammary gland development

“…Despite implementation of heat abatement, in 2003 production losses cost $897 million, $369 million, $299 million, and $128 million for the U.S. dairy, beef, swine, and poultry industries, respectively (St-Pierre et al, 2003). By 2019, the dairy industry’s annual heat induced economic loss had risen to $1.2 billion (Key and Sneeringer, 2014). This cost is predicted to keep rising throughout the 21 st century with climate change (Gunn et al, 2019).…”