Potential for Seasonal Lassa Fever Case Exportation from Nigeria

Tuite, Ashleigh R.; Watts, Alexander; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Khan, Kamran; Bogoch, Isaac I.

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.18-0753

Cited by 14 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…We used a previously described modeling approach (Tuite et al., 2019; Lewnard, Gonsalves, & Ko, 2016) to quantify the risk of travel-associated CHIKV case exportation from Thailand. This method estimates the probability that an individual traveling from the outbreak region will acquire infection and export it to another country.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Tuite

Watts

Khan

et al. 2019

Infectious Disease Modelling

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Southern Thailand has been experiencing a large chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak since October 2018. Given the magnitude and duration of the outbreak and its location in a popular tourist destination, we sought to determine international case exportation risk and identify countries at greatest risk of receiving travel-associated imported CHIKV cases. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected number of exported cases from Southern Thailand between October 2018 and April 2019. The model incorporated data on CHIKV natural history, infection rates in Southern Thailand, average length of stay for tourists, and international outbound air passenger numbers from the outbreak area. For countries highly connected to Southern Thailand by air travel, we ran 1000 simulations to estimate the expected number of imported cases. We also identified destination countries with conditions suitable for autochthonous CHIKV transmission. Over the outbreak period, we estimated that an average of 125 (95% credible interval (CrI): 102–149) cases would be exported from Southern Thailand to international destinations via air travel. China was projected to receive the most cases (43, 95% CrI: 30–56), followed by Singapore (7, 95% CrI: 2–12) and Malaysia (5, 95% CrI: 1–10). Twenty-three countries were projected to receive at least one imported case, and 64% of these countries had one or more regions that could potentially support autochthonous CHIKV transmission. The overall risk of international exportation of CHIKV cases associated with the outbreak is Southern Thailand is high. Our model projections are consistent with recent reports of CHIKV in travelers returning from the region. Countries should be alert to the possibility of CHIKV infection in returning travelers, particularly in regions where autochthonous transmission is possible.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Tuite

Watts

Khan

et al. 2019

Infectious Disease Modelling

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recent modelling work suggests that the countries outside of West Africa at greatest risk of importation of an individual with LF are the United States of America, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates and South Africa. In models of the risk of disease export, the majority (61%) of simulated outbreaks had no exported cases, with a single imported case in 30% of simulations [ 30 ]. These simulations are sensitive to the total number of annual cases and the peak number of cases during seasonal outbreaks.…”

Section: Geographical Distribution Of Lassa Fevermentioning

confidence: 99%

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control

Arruda

Haider

Olayemi

et al. 2021

Ann Clin Microbiol Antimicrob

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

show abstract

“…There are public health concerns about its incidence, virulence and potential as a bioterrorism agent. 7 – 11…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological trends of Lassa fever in Nigeria from 2015-2021: A review

Grace¹,

Egoh

Udensi

2021

Therapeutic Advances in Infection

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Introduction: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever with non-specific symptoms that has shown an upward trend in Nigeria and other West African countries, which is depicted by high incidence and case fatality in recent years. There are different reports on the yearly case burden of Lassa fever from the Federal Ministry of Health in Nigeria, through the regulatory body – Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC). Being the epicentre of the disease, Lassa fever has been exported from Nigeria to both neighbouring and distant countries.Methods: The aim of this review was to carry out a retrospective analysis from January 2015 to 26 September 2021 of the weekly and yearly outbreak of Lassa fever in Nigeria based on selected publications. The focus was on timely diagnosis, treatment option, public health interventions and progress of clinical trials for vaccine candidates, and to identify proactive measures that can be sustained to curb periodic outbreaks. The review was done using percentages, cross-tabulation and graphical charts. Results: The predominant age group infected was 21 to 40 years with a male to female ratio of 1:0.8. A total of 3311 laboratory-confirmed Lassa fever cases out of 20,588 suspected cases were identified from 29 states. Edo, Ondo, Taraba, Ebonyi, Bauchi, Plateau and Nasarawa had yearly Lassa fever incidence over the time frame considered. Contact tracing was done on over 33,804 individuals with about 90% completing follow-up. Case fatality rate within the period ranged from 9.3% to 29.2%. There is a sharp decline in the epidemiological trend of Lassa fever in the yearly seasonal peaks from weeks 1 to 13 with about 75% reduction in incidence between 2020 and 2021. Conclusion: The effective management of Lassa fever needs the implementation of preventive methods, prompt laboratory diagnosis, timely treatment, provision of personal protective equipment, cross-border surveillance, contact tracing, community awareness and vector control in order to minimise spread.

show abstract

Potential for Seasonal Lassa Fever Case Exportation from Nigeria

Cited by 14 publications

References 12 publications

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

Countries at risk of importation of chikungunya virus cases from Southern Thailand: A modeling study

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control

Epidemiological trends of Lassa fever in Nigeria from 2015-2021: A review

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About