Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ N

Duchez, Aurélie; Courtois, Peggy; Harris, Elizabeth A.; Josey, Simon A.; Kanzow, Torsten; Marsh, Robert; Smeed, David A.; Hirschi, Joël

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1

Cited by 33 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…The most important shortcoming of this approach is the necessity of long and widespread observations from hardly accessible regions like the deep ocean. The third method relies on the identification of significant statistical relationships between the AMOC and other oceanic and atmospheric variables, such as the sea surface temperature and height (Latif et al 2004;Zhang 2008;Willis 2010;Duchez et al 2016), the deep Labrador sea water densities (Robson et al 2014), or the cumulative effect of heat fluxes in the deep convection regions (Ortega et al 2011). However, these covariances have been mostly established using models, which have inevitable biases that may compromise the reality of these inferred relationships.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these covariances have been mostly established using models, which have inevitable biases that may compromise the reality of these inferred relationships. Besides, direct observations of the AMOC are still too short and can only be used to identify significant relationships at the monthly timescale (Duchez et al 2016), which do not necessarily hold at decadal and longer timescales. Finally, climate models can also be used to constrain the past AMOC evolution, by assimilating the observed variability of relevant climate quantities (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

et al. 2017

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mixed layer depth, which, in essence, keeps the restoring time scale constant. This new technique substantially improves water mass transformation in the regions of convection, and in particular, the formation of the densest waters, which are key for the representation of the AMOC extreme. It is therefore a promising strategy that may help to better constrain the AMOC variability and other ocean features in the models. As this restoring technique only uses surface data, for which better and longer observations are available, it opens up opportunities for improved reconstructions of the AMOC over the last few decades.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

et al. 2017

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“…

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al, 2016, https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain.

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confidence: 99%

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

Alexander‐Turner

Ortega

Robson

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high‐resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5‐month lagged AMOC‐SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC‐SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid‐ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

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“…Based on the observations thus far, telemetry of data from these two moorings would accurately estimate of interannual variability including the large downturn in 2009/2010. Near real‐time AMOC data could thus aid the prediction of seasonal climate patterns [ Duchez et al ., ] and extreme sea level rise events [ Goddard et al ., ] and would provide a valuable estimate of the subclimate time scale AMOC variability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The correct initialization of these SST patterns was crucial to the successful seasonal forecast of that year's negative NAO [Maidens et al, 2013]. Duchez et al [2015] show that AMOC variations precede certain SST patterns and could thus feed into the predictions of these SSTs and improved seasonal forecasts, if near real-time AMOC estimates were available. Regarding the latter, following the dip in the AMOC in 2009/2010, sea level in New York rose by 10 cm 2 months later [Goddard et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

et al. 2017

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full‐depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real‐time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real‐time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.

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Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ N

Cited by 33 publications

References 69 publications

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

Reconstructing extreme AMOC events through nudging of the ocean surface: a perfect model approach

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

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