Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference

Abstract

Abstract. Emerging infectious diseases can present serious threats to wildlife, even to the point of causing extinction. Whitenose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) is causing an epizootic in bats that is expanding rapidly, both geographically and taxonomically. Little is known of the ecology and distributional potential of this intercontinental pathogen. We address this gap via ecological niche models that characterise coarse resolution niche differences between fungus populations on different continents, identifying areas potentially vulnerable to infection in South America. Here we explore a novel approach to identifying areas of potential distribution across novel geographic regions that avoids perilious extrapolation into novel environments. European and North American fungus populations show differential use of environmental space, but rather than niche differentiation, we find that changes are best attributed to climatic differences between the two continents. Suitable areas for spread of the pathogen were identified across southern South America; however caution should be taken to avoid underestimating the potential for spread of this pathogen in South America.

NicheA: creating virtual species and ecological niches in multivariate environmental scenarios

“…Compared to existing tools for creating virtual species including SDMvspecies and virtualspecies (Duan et al and Leroy et al ), NicheA has a GUI to manage the virtual species’ niche in a multidimensional environmental space (Table ), something we found critical for robust study design and accurate interpretation of outputs (Escobar et al ). Beyond creating virtual niches in an environmental space from a variety of possibilities (e.g.…”

Patterns of niche filling and expansion across the invaded ranges of an Australian lizard

“…We did not use variables that combined temperature and precipitation (e.g. mean temperature of the wettest quarter), as they can be difficult to interpret when projected to different areas (Elith et al ), and because these variables displayed artificial discontinuities between adjacent grid cells in some areas (Escobar et al ). Land cover can be an important predictor of ectotherm distributions (Tingley and Herman , Gillingham et al ), but we did not include it in our models because of substantial differences in the land cover categories occupied in the native and invaded ranges of L. delicata .…”

“…Thus, while building ENMs with data from a species’ invaded range may incorporate phenotypic changes and more closely approximate the fundamental niche due to the absence of key biotic interactions (Urban et al ), this approach is still limited by the fact that it assumes that species are in environmental equilibrium (Václavík and Meentemeyer ). One potential way to lessen the impact of this assumption is to pool data from a species’ native and invaded ranges (Escobar et al ). This pooled modelling strategy may allow ENMs to capture: 1) responses to climates in the invaded range that are not present in the native range, 2) phenotypic changes in the invaded range, and 3) climates that are occupied in a species’ native range that have not yet been colonized in the invaded range (Broennimann and Guisan , Beaumont et al ).…”

Modelling the future spread of native and alien congeneric species in subterranean habitats — the case of Meta cave-dwelling spiders in Great Britain

“…Despite its importance, I am not aware of any quantitative studies which have been conducted to model the potential distribution and spread of alien invertebrate species in subterranean habitats at a regional scale -but see Flory et al (2012) and Escobar et al (2014) for two examples of fungi. An interesting test case for a similar analysis is offered by Meta spiders in Great Britain (Araneae: Tetragnathidae).…”