Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment

May, Wilhelm

doi:10.1007/s00382-003-0389-2

Cited by 62 publications

(47 citation statements)

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“…All panels are averages over the last 10 years of a 70-year simulation. consistent with understood mechanisms governing monsoon changes (e.g., May, 2004). The centroid χ is shifted northward as compared to the preindustrial climatology in nearly all months (with the exception of boreal late spring), especially in the boreal winter, when the ITCZ is at its most southward position.…”

Section: Results From the 2 × 2 Casesupporting

confidence: 80%

Geoengineering as a design problem

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Understanding the climate impacts of solar geoengineering is essential for evaluating its benefits and risks. Most previous simulations have prescribed a particular strategy and evaluated its modeled effects. Here we turn this approach around by first choosing example climate objectives and then designing a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models.There are four essential criteria for designing a strategy: (i) an explicit specification of the objectives, (ii) defining what climate forcing agents to modify so the objectives are met, (iii) a method for managing uncertainties, and (iv) independent verification of the strategy in an evaluation model.We demonstrate this design perspective through two multi-objective examples. First, changes in Arctic temperature and the position of tropical precipitation due to CO 2 increases are offset by adjusting high-latitude insolation in each hemisphere independently. Second, three different latitude-dependent patterns of insolation are modified to offset CO 2 -induced changes in global mean temperature, interhemispheric temperature asymmetry, and the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In both examples, the "design" and "evaluation" models are state-of-the-art fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

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Section: Results From the 2 × 2 Casesupporting

confidence: 80%

Geoengineering as a design problem

et al. 2016

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“…Ashrit et al (2003) showed that the increase in monsoon precipitation is partly due to a "nondynamical" response to global warming, namely a large increase in precipitable water over India, but does not show a clear strengthening of monsoon circulation. Recently, May's (2004) time slice experiment also predicts an intensification of Indian summer rainfall associated with enhanced atmospheric moisture transport into the monsoon region due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of monsoon circulation in the upper troposphere and only little change in the lower troposphere.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Liu

Kutzbach

et al. 2006

Journal of Climate

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Insolation forcing related to the earth's orbital parameters is known to play an important role in regulating variations of the South Asian monsoon on geological time scales. The influence of insolation forcing on the Indian Ocean and Asian monsoon is studied in this paper by isolating the Northern and Southern Hemispheric insolation changes in several numerical experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The focus is on the response of South Asian summer rainfall (monsoon strength) with emphasis on impacts of the local versus remote forcing and possible mechanisms. The model results show that both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer insolation changes affect the Indian Ocean and Asian monsoon as a local forcing (in the same hemisphere), but only the SH changes result in remote (in the other hemisphere) forcing. The NH insolation change has a local and immediate impact on NH summer monsoons from North Africa to South and East Asia, while the SH insolation change has a remote and seasonal-scale delayed effect on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. When the SH insolation is increased from December to April, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the southern tropical Indian Ocean remains high from January to July. The increased SST produces more atmospheric precipitable water over the southern tropical Indian Ocean by promoting evaporation from the ocean. The enhanced precipitable water over the southern Indian Ocean is transported northward to the South Asian monsoon region by the lower-tropospheric mean cross-equatorial flows with the onset of the Asian monsoon increasing precipitable water over South Asia, eventually leading to the increase of Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Thus, these model experiments, while idealized and not fully representing actual orbitally forced insolation changes, confirm the broadscale response of northern monsoons to NH summer insolation increases and also illustrate how SH summer insolation increases can have a delayed influence on the Indian summer monsoon.

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“…Greenhouse warming appears to increase SASM precipitation due to the associated increase in the water vapor mixing ratio (Meehl and Washington 1993;Hu et al 2000;May 2002;2004;Meehl and Arblaster 2003), but may actually weaken the strength of the SASM circulation itself by stabilizing the atmosphere via enhanced midtropospheric latent heating (Kitoh et al 1997;Douville et al 2000). This so-called wind-precipitation paradox is discussed further below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period*

et al. 2010

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The behavior in the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) was analyzed in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multimodel historical (20c3m) simulations and in modern observational and reanalysis data. The CMIP3 simulations capture the observed trend of weakening of the SASM circulation over the past half century, but are unable to reproduce the magnitude of the observed weakening trend. While the observations indicate a slight decrease in SASM-related precipitation, the CMIP3 simulations indicate on average a very slight increase, albeit with very large intermodel and intramodel variabilities. The CMIP3 simulations reproduce the observed negative relationship between the SASM and ENSO. The observed weakening trend in this relationship in recent decades, which has been attributed in some studies to anthropogenic forcing, appears to be well within the variability of the CMIP3 multimodel ensemble. For some models, distinct realizations indicate both strengthening and weakening trends that are larger in magnitude than the observed weakening trend.

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Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment

Cited by 62 publications

References 50 publications

Geoengineering as a design problem

Geoengineering as a design problem

Hemispheric Insolation Forcing of the Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon: Local versus Remote Impacts*

Observed and Modeled Changes in the South Asian Summer Monsoon over the Historical Period*

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