Potential Geographic Distribution of <i>Durio oxleyanus</i> (Malvaceae): a Threatened Wild Fruit Plant Species in Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract

Durio oxleyanus is a threatened species native to Southeast Asia, particularly Borneo and Sumatra. Future climate changes are expected to have a significant impact on D. oxleyanus. The aims of this study, therefore, were (1) assessing the potential distribution of D. oxleyanus in Sumatra, (2) determining the main variables influencing D. oxleyanus distribution and their suitable range, and (3) simulating the changing trend of D. oxleyanus suitable habitat under climate change scenarios. We modeled the current and future distributions of D. oxleyanus using three representative concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The findings demonstrate that the AUC values of all simulations were greater than 0.916. The key environmental variables influencing the potential distribution of D. oxleyanus were mean temperature of the coldest quarter (20-25ºC), elevation (400-800 m), temperature seasonality (50-60%), and precipitation of coldest quarter (500-750 mm). The highly suitable habitat covered 1,303.85 ha, with the majority of it concentrated in two provinces, i.e. Aceh and Sumatera Barat. The total areas of the suitable habitat of D. oxleyanus showed decreasing trends under the three climate change scenarios, and the geometric center of the highly suitable habitat shifted westsouth of Sumatra. Our findings can serve as a scientific foundation for the protection, cultivation, and long-term management of D. oxleyanus.

The diversity and regional conservation status of wild edible fruit species in Sumatra, Indonesia

“…This is predicted because these areas' forest habitat was comparable to topography and forest structure. Topographical factors (e.g., altitude, aspect, and slope) and edaphic factors (soil type, soil fertility, and texture) influence vegetation growth (Ramos et al 2020) and play an important role in plant species distribution (Bhat et al 2020;Suwardi et al 2023b), which leads to species diversification (Bhardwaj et al 2021) and could guide forest composition at one altitude (Kumar et al 2021). The lowest similarities were detected at sites West Sumatra-Riau and Jambi-Bengkulu (23% each).…”