Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Abraha, Michael; Savage, Michael J.

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2005.12.020

Cited by 115 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Even runoff is likely to be further reduced (IPCC, 2007). Muchena and Iglesias, (1995), in Abraha and Savage (2006) through model simulations have concluded that temperature increase of 2 0 C or 4 0 C reduced maize yields which show that crop production is significantly affected by climatic variables. Given this argument, the increasing temperatures may impact water resources in and around Namulonge and also alter crop water balances.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Nsubuga

Olwoch²,

Rautenbach³

2011

JGG

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This paper investigates rainfall and temperature trends at Namulonge parish, in Wakiso district of Uganda using statistical techniques. Daily-observed temperature and rainfall records were aggregated into monthly means over a period of more than 55 years. These records were analyzed in an effort to identify both seasonal trends and shifts in climate. This was achieved by using non-parametric (Mann-Kendall) and parametric (linear regression) techniques. The analysis shows that total rainfall during the March-May season decreased, while maximum temperatures were increasing during the months between April and September, with both trends statistically significant at 5% confidence level. The Mann-Kendall test revealed that the number of wet days reduced significantly. Temperatures were found to be warmer and rainfall higher in the first climate normal compared to the recent 30 years. Results revealed that April was the only month with a statistically significant rainfall trend.

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Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Nsubuga

Olwoch²,

Rautenbach³

2011

JGG

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“…However, higher temperatures may also impact water availability and hence crop production [101,102]. Warmer urban environment also affects temperature-related morbidity of urban dwellers [12,103,104].…”

Section: Evolutionanalysis Of Suhii In Wintermentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Urbanization and Seasonal Cycle on the Surface Urban Heat Island Patterns in the Coastal Growing Cities: A Case Study of Casablanca, Morocco

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is a harmful environmental problem in urban areas affecting both climatic and ecological processes. This paper aims to highlight and monitor the spatial distribution of Surface UHI (SUHI) in the Casablanca region, Morocco, using remote sensing data. To achieve this goal, a time series of Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI-TIRS images was acquired from 1984 to 2016 and analyzed. In addition, nocturnal MODIS images acquired from 2005 to 2015 were used to evaluate the nighttime SUHI. In order to better analyze intense heat produced by urban core, SUHI intensity (SUHII) was computed by quantifying the difference of land surface temperature (LST) between urban and rural areas. The urban core SUHII appears more significant in winter seasons than during summer, while the pattern of SUHII becomes moderate during intermediate seasons. During winter, the average daytime SUHII gradually increased in the residential area of Casablanca and in some small peri-urban cities by more than 1 • C from 1984 to 2015. The industrial areas of the Casablanca region were affected by a significant rise in SUHII exceeding 15 • C in certain industrial localities. In contrast, daytime SUHII shows a reciprocal effect during summer with emergence of a heat island in rural areas and development of cool islands in urban and peri-urban areas. During nighttime, the SUHII remains positive in urban areas year-round with higher values in winter as compared to summer. The results point out that the seasonal cycle of daytime SUHII as observed in the Casablanca region is different from other mid-latitude cities, where the highest values are often observed in summer during the day.

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“…An implementation of the Priestley-Taylor equation (Priestley & Taylor 1972), based on air temperature and S o inputs, was used to compute the reference evapotranspiration. Of the crop residue, 40% was assumed to remain in the field after harvest for recycling purposes (Abraha & Savage 2006). No irrigation was used as this is not a common practice.…”

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confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

Tingem¹,

Rivington²,

Bellocchi³

et al. 2008

Clim. Res.

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This study involves an assessment of the potential effects of greenhouse gas climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO 2 on crop yields in Cameroon. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of 2 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, namely NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the Hadley Centre's HadCM3, to the CropSyst crop model to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum and soybean) in 8 agricultural regions of Cameroon. For the future we estimate substantial yield increases for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, and little or no change and even decreases of maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region. Maize and sorghum (both C4 crops) yields are expected to decrease by 14.6 and 39.9%, respectively, across the whole country under GISS 2080 scenarios. The results also show that the effect of temperature patterns on climate change is much more important than that of precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change/variability and dissemination of information to farmers, to encourage adaptation to climate change.KEY WORDS: Cameroon · Climate change · CO 2 · Crop yields · Adaptation · CropSyst Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 36: [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77] 2008 Though a few studies have been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries (Seo et al. 2005, Adejuwon, 2006, Thornton et al. 2006, Kabubo-Mariara & Karanja 2007, there is a dearth of literature on this impact in Cameroon; thus the adaptation and mitigation measures that are available to policy makers are severely limited.The present study aims to partially address this research gap. It uses the coupled climate scenariocrop model method, in which coupled atmosphereocean general circulation models (A-OGCMs), used to generate future climate scenarios, are integrated into crop models in order to simulate future crop yields (Tubiello et al. 2000, Brassard & Singh 2007. The use of this method allows us to gain an insight not only into how future crop yields may change, but also into the nature of the factors responsible for yield changes, and how they may affect crop production. Understanding the impacts of long-term climate change on agriculture is crucial for future agricultural policies and interventions in Cameroon, as well as aiding practical steps to mitigate potentially adverse impacts of climate change, which is likely to have important implications for future food security.The general objective of this study is to examine the effects of long-term climate change on Cameroon crop agriculture and identify the adaptation options of agroecological systems using a simulation analysis. The specific objectives are to simulate and highlight the expected effects of various long-term climate change scenarios on future agricultural productivity and discuss policy ...

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Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Cited by 115 publications

References 15 publications

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Climatic Trends at Namulonge in Uganda: 1947-2009

Effects of Urbanization and Seasonal Cycle on the Surface Urban Heat Island Patterns in the Coastal Growing Cities: A Case Study of Casablanca, Morocco

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

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