Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation

Fowler, Anthony; Hennessy, Kevin

doi:10.1007/bf00613411

Cited by 228 publications

(135 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…More specifically, one may argue that the frequency of precipitation events is determined by the sequence of synoptic-scale circulation patterns, while the event intensity is governed by underlying precipitation processes (see Fowler and Hennessy 1995;Frei et al 2006;Lenderink and van Meijgaard 2008;Chan et al 2015). However, if such arguments are applied to impact-relevant considerations, then the conditional nature of wet-day percentiles needs to be accounted for.…”

Section: Wet-day Percentile Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of the early studies in this area (e.g. Noda and Tokioka 1989;Gordon et al 1992;Fowler and Hennessy 1995) typically defined 5 to 8 intensity classes, and addressed changes in each of these. As the classes are subjectively selected, the choice may suit a certain region but miss the heavy events of another, due to tremendous geographical variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events

et al. 2016

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Many climate studies assess trends and projections in heavy precipitation events using precipitation percentile (or quantile) indices. Here we investigate three different percentile indices that are commonly used. We demonstrate that these may produce very different results and thus require great care with interpretation. More specifically, consideration is given to two intensity-based indices and one frequency-based index, namely (a) all-day percentiles, (b) wet-day percentiles, and (c) frequency indices based on the exceedance of a percentile threshold.Climatic Change (2016) Wet-day percentiles are conditionally computed for the subset of wet events (with precipitation exceeding some threshold, e.g. 1 mm/d for daily precipitation). We present evidence that this commonly used methodology can lead to artifacts and misleading results if significant changes in the wet-day frequency are not accounted for. Percentile threshold indices measure the frequency of exceedance with respect to a percentile-based threshold. We show that these indices yield an assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events that is qualitatively consistent with all-day percentiles, but there are substantial differences in quantitative terms. We discuss the reasons for these effects, present a theoretical assessment, and provide a series of examples using global and regional climate models to quantify the effects in typical applications.Application to climate model output shows that these considerations are relevant to a wide range of typical climate-change applications. In particular, wet-day percentiles generally yield different results, and in most instances should not be used for the impact-oriented assessment of changes in heavy precipitation events.

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Section: Wet-day Percentile Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events

et al. 2016

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“…Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in both the short and long terms for most regions globally, including Europe (Fowler and Hennessy, 1995;Larsen et al, 2009;Field et al, 2012;Sunyer et al, 2015a). Climate projections generally suggest that the most severe extremes with the shortest (subdaily) durations are likely to be enhanced more than less severe (daily) extremes (Larsen et al, 2009;Arnbjerg-Nielsen, 2012).…”

Section: Climate-change Impacts On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Kaspersen

Ravn²,

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

160

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Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the "stationary" approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the "evolutionary" approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical t...

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“…The formation mechanisms of these precipitation types are also different. Heavy precipitation usually forms in fastgrowing convective clouds, which are intimately connected with robust moisture rising caused by dynamic convergence, orographic uplifting or surface heating [2][3][4]. In contrast, low-intensity precipitation is more associated with cloud microphysical processes, which are affected by aerosols, moisture content and so on [5][6][7][8].…”

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confidence: 99%

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

2013

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors. precipitation spectra, global warming, spatial scale, extreme precipitation, composite analysis Citation:Wu F T, Fu C B. Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions.

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Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation

Cited by 228 publications

References 18 publications

Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events

Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

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