Potential impacts of industrial structure on energy consumption and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing

Abstract

Abstract：An optimization model is developed based on the Input-Output model to assess the potential impacts of industrial structure on the energy consumption and CO2 emission. The method is applied to a case study of industrial structure adjustment in Beijing, China. Results demonstrate that industrial structure adjustment has great potential of energy conservation and carbon reduction. When the average annual growth rate of GDP is 8.29% from 2010 to 2020, industrial structure adjustment can save energy by 39.42% (50.06 million tons of standard coal equivalent), and reduce CO2 emission by 46.06% (96.31 million tons) in Beijing in 2020. Second, Beijing had better strive to develop several low energy intensive and low carbon intensive sectors, such as information transmission, computer service and software, and finance. Third, energy intensity is possible to decrease without negatively affecting economic growth by reasonable industrial structure adjustment. Four, compared to "intensity targets", "total amount targets" are more effective on the energy conservation and carbon reduction, but have much greater negative effects on economic growth. Therefore, it needs to be balanced between "total amount targets" and "intensity targets".

Energy Consumption and Economic Development in Hong Kong, China

“…Hong Kong's power plants use both coal and natural gas as fuels. 4 Hong Kong exported electricity to Shenzhen from 1979 to 1993 when Shenzhen started transforming itself from an agricultural municipality to an industrial-based special economic zone. The Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant in Shenzhen was put into operation in 1994.…”

“…The IPCC [31] suggests that the 95% confidence intervals of CO 2 emission for aviation gasoline/kerosene, motor gasoline, gas/diesel oil, heavy fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and coal are [ 4 , and N 2 O emissions for oil products, natural gas, and coal follow lognormal distributions [31].…”

“…Unfortunately, the pollution footprint of these cities has increased despite the substantial reduction in their manufacturing activities and shifting to the so-called low energy intensive and low carbon intensive sectors [2][3][4][5]. In these cities, the rapid development in the commerce, service, and hospitality sectors has led to the massive construction of commercial buildings, shopping malls, hotels, luxury high-rise apartments, and electrified metro systems [6][7][8].…”

“…Hong Kong's port capacity increased from 0.5 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) in 1970 to 20.1 million TEU in 2015 [9]. Air pollutants from stationary sources, such as power plants, commercial establishments, and buildings [3,10,11] and mobile sources, such as cars, trucks, ships, and aircraft [11][12][13], have also increased drastically, adversely affecting people's health [14,15] As CH 4 and N 2 O have more profound effects than CO 2 on global warming, the global warming potentials of CH 4 and N 2 O relative to CO 2 are set to 25 and 298, respectively [32]. Besides, a sensitivity analysis on GHG emissions was performed using Monte Carlo simulations [3].…”

Urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Beijing: current and future

“…The impact of industrial structure adjustment on CO2 emissions (-4.33%) is much larger than that on energy consumption (-3.87%), indicating that a series of measures such as upgrading the industrial structure and changing the economic development mode play a critical role in CO2 emissions reduction (Mi et al 2014). Now Beijing is in the process of economic transition and the tertiary industry is encouraged to develop strongly.…”