Potential Impacts of Temperature Projections on Selected Large Herbivores in Savanna Ecosystem of Kenya

Abstract

Due to global land surface warming, severe temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores. There are increasing observations of escalating wildlife range losses worldwide. In this study, we investigated 15 large wild herbivores (4 migratory, 1 dispersing and 10 residents) and their potential range changes in relation to projected temperatures changes based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Previous studies of Kenyan savannah have shown that increases in temperature can reduce the densities of wildlife significantly and after certain thresholds the species can be lost in those landscapes. The range maps of the 15 species were developed from aerial censuses that have been conducted in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. We analysed temperature changes for the three RCPs for the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. And based on the temperature threshold for each of the 15 species we analysed which wildlife range areas will be lost. Our results project that for the RCP 2.6, 3 out of the 15 species are projected to lose more than 50% of their range by the year 2030s, and 5 out 15 by 2050s and 4 of 15 by 2070s. The second climate scenario of RCP 4.5 projects that by 2030s, 3 species will lose more than 50% of their range, and in 2050s and 2070s 5 species. The RCP 8.5 which is the extreme scenario of temperature changes projects 5 species to lose their range by 50% in 2030s, 7 species by 2050s and 10 species by 2070s. The extent of range loss was different among species but was severe for buffalo, Thomson's ga- zelle, waterbuck, and wildebeest which are also water dependent species. However, the elephant, gerenuk, hartebeest, lesser kudu, and oryx are expected to retain most of their range in all the RCPs scenarios. These range contractions raise serious concerns about the future of wildlife in Kenyan savannah based on projected climate changes. And therefore, it is imperative the wildlife sector develops climate policies and plans that take into account the projected climate scenarios.

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in the Amboseli Ecosystem of Kenya

“…An exceptionally warm Amboseli ecosystem will lead to decline of most herbivore species as temperature would have surpassed species thresholds temperatures as indicated in the recent studies on potential impacts of climate on wildlife in the savanna ecosystems of Kenya by [45] and [16]. In the study [45] projected that -for RCP 2.6 three out of the 15 species might lose more than 50% of their range by the year 2030s, and 5 out 15 by 2050s and 4 of 15 by 2070s. The second climate scenario of RCP 4.5 projects that by 2030s, 3 species will lose more than 50% of their range, and in 2050s and 2070s 5 species.…”

Projection of Future Changes in Elephant Population in Amboseli under Representative Concentration Pathways

“…Analysis of historical rainfall data of the study area from 1960-2014 showed a bimodal pattern of rainfall with two rainy seasons and two dry seasons [1]. The year in Amboseli ecosystem begins in October and ends the following September and is linked closely to the annual cycle of growth of vegetation in the study site [46].…”

“…A study on potential impacts of projected temperature based on RCP 2.5, 4.5 and 8.5 changes on the elephant range showed minimal impacts on elephant whilst for other large herbivore the impacts on their range will significant [1] It is estimated that there were once more than 350 species of elephants in the world [59] Today we only have two living species of elephant, namely; The African elephant (Loxodonta africana) and the Asiatic elephant (Elephas maximus). Five subspecies are recognized, two belonging to the African elephant and three belonging to the Asiatic elephant.…”

“…Global land surface warming and increasing temperature events are expected to occur more frequently and more extremely causing changes in biodiversity and altering movement and survival of large herbivores [1]. There are increasing observations of escalating wildlife range losses worldwide.…”

Habitat degradation, vegetation damage, and wildlife‐livestock interactions in Amboseli ecosystem wildlife sanctuaries, Kenya

“…The area experiences a typical East African rainfall pattern, with short rains occurring from November to January and long rains occurring from March to May. Mean annual rainfall is approximately 569 mm, though it has declined since the 1960s (Aduma et al, 2018). Temperatures usually range from 12°C in July to 35°C in February with an average of 21–25°C each month (Worden et al, 2003).…”