Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994–2004

Bigsten, Arne; Shimeles, Abebe

doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.09.002

“…This general observation is in line with results from other developing countries e.g., Bigsten & Shimeles (2008) for Ethiopia; McKay & Lawson (2003) and Baulch & Masset (2003) for Vietnam. As will be shown in this section, our data underline this observation, but, at the same time, reveal great discrepancies between provinces and type of poverty line used.…”

Section: Table 5 Around Heresupporting

confidence: 91%

Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?

Glauben

¹

,

Herzfeld

²

,

Rozelle

³

et al. 2012

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Using rural household panel data from three Chinese provinces, this paper identifies determinants of long-term poverty and tests the duration dependence on the probability to leave poverty. Special emphasis is given to the selection of the poverty line and inter-regional differences across provinces. Results suggest that the majority of population seems to be only temporary poor. However, the probability to leave poverty for those who were poor is differently affected by poverty duration across provinces ranging from no duration dependence in Zhejiang to highly significant duration dependence in Yunnan. The number of non-working family members, education, and several village characteristics seem to be the most important covariates. Terms of use: Documents in

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“…This is further complicated by weak institutions in Africa to put in place effective redistributive systems, as well as prevalence of ethnic based political dispensation. Figure (8) illustrates that the greater a country is ethnically divided, the lesser the size of the middle class becomes 8 . Given that ethnic diversity is dicult to change through public policies, it can be seen as a potential exogenous factor that prevents the growth of the middle class.…”

Section: Drivers Of Cross-country Variations In the Size Of Middle CLmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Making of the Middle-Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data

Shimeles

¹

,

Ncube

²

2015

The Journal of Development Studies

Self Cite

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu Terms of use: Documents in D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E S ABSTRACT The Making of Middle Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS DataThis paper presents evidence on the making of the middle class in Africa by exploiting a comparable micro data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for thirty-seven countries over two decades consisting of over seven hundred thousand household histories. We constructed a pseudo-panel to examine the dynamics of middle class in blocks of four periods covering the period 1990-2011. A key finding is that there was significant mobility of the middle class to the upper class in the last two decades with very few slipping back to poverty with obvious difference across countries. The paper approached the making of a middle class in Africa from institutional and policy perspectives. Initial conditions such as level of development in early decades, quality of institutions and most of all ethnic fractionalization play a significant role in determining the growth of the middle class in recent years. In addition we found evidence suggesting that the size of the middle class is higher in countries where mutual trust among citizens tends to be stronger. The role of education feature prominently in the making of the middle class. In about 30 of the 83 country-level regression decompositions we conducted for the asset index, the contribution of education exceeded 25% in explaining the overall variance in the asset index. The 'premium' (or 'return') individuals obtain from achieving primary, secondary and tertiary level of education is unambiguously high compared with no education, but the effect decreases as the mean level of schooling increases.JEL Classification: D31, J15

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“…Agriculture, which accounts for over 40 percent of GDP and nearly 85 percent of employment, grew by 8.4 percent. In spite of this, about 30 percent of Ethiopia's 84.7 million people lived below the official poverty line in 2011 (Government of Ethiopia, 2013), but it is likely that an even larger proportion have experienced extended periods of poverty due to shocks (Bigsten and Shimeles, 2008). The rise in food inflation, for instance, is likely to have increased urban poverty (Alem and Söderbom, 2012).…”

Section: Economic Performance and Inflationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia

Durevall

¹

,

Loening

²

,

Birru

³

2013

Journal of Development Economics

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During the global food crisis, Ethiopia experienced an unprecedented increase in inflation, among the highest in Africa. Using monthly data over the past decade, we estimate models of inflation to identify the importance of the factors contributing to CPI inflation and three of its major components: cereal prices, food prices, and nonfood prices. Our main finding is that movements in international food and goods prices, measured in domestic currency, determined the long-run evolution of domestic prices. In the short run, agricultural supply shocks affected food inflation, causing large deviations from long-run price trends. Monetary policy seems to have accommodated price shocks, but money supply growth affected short-run non-food price inflation. Our results suggest that when analyzing inflation in developing economies with a large food share in consumer prices, world food prices and domestic agricultural production should be considered. Omitting these factors can lead to biased results and misguided policy decisions.

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Poverty Transition and Persistence in Ethiopia: 1994–2004

Cited by 58 publications

References 44 publications

Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?

Persistent Poverty in Rural China: Where, Why, and How to Escape?

The Making of the Middle-Class in Africa: Evidence from DHS Data

Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia

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