Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high‐resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation

Feng, Xuelei; Liu, Chuntao; Xie, Feiqin; Lu, Jian; Chiu, Long S.; Tintera, George; Chen, Baohua

doi:10.1002/qj.3432

Cited by 41 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Remarkable features of obtained PRCPTOT and SDII changes' projections over the Antarctic Peninsula are associated with its orography, namely the highest increase in precipitation amount and intensity are observed on windward slopes. Since the Antarctic Peninsula is under the influence of both warm oceanic westerlies and cold winds from the continent (Turner et al, 2005), projected warming will cause more evaporation from the ocean resulting in more precipitable water in the atmosphere of the region (Feng et al, 2019). Hence precipitation pattern triggered by Antarctic Peninsula mountains expects changes.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices

Chyhareva¹,

Krakovska²,

Pishniak

2020

UAJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objective of the study is an assessment of possible climate change in the region of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1986 until the end of the 21st century projected by the RCMs' ensemble. During the last decades Antarctica has undergone predominantly warming, with the highest rate of surface air temperature increase found over the Antarctic Peninsula, where the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station is located. There is a unique ecosystem in the region which is vulnerable and under the growing impact of a changing weather regime due to rapid climate changes with consequent changes in sea ice, land distribution under snow/ice, etc. Thus, an important task for the region is an estimation of climate change trends and definition of possible subregionalization. Data and methods. Data of two regional climate models HIRHAM5 and RACMO21P forced by two global climate models EC-EARTH and HadGEM from the Polar-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment -Arctic and Antarctic Domains) as part of the international CORDEX initiative were used in the study. Spatial distribution of the model output is 0.44°. Set of scripting codes developed by Climate4R project (An R Framework for Climate Data Access and Postprocessing) was modified in order to extract data for the Antarctic Peninsula region from the Antarctic domain and obtain climatological characteristics for individual RCMs and their ensemble mean. Projected changes in wet/dry climate indices for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for two periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 were assessed with respect to the historical experiment 1986-2005. Results. An analysis of projected wet/dry climate indices for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is presented in Part II of the paper. An analysis of the cold temperature indices (FD, ID) is presented in Part I of the study. In the historical experiment Larsen Ice Shelf and leeward east coast are the regions with the lowest total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT, 200-300 mm) and simple daily intensity index (SDII, about 5 mm/day) with under 10 days of consecutive wet days (CWD) and up to 30 days consecutive dry days (CDD). In the cross of the 21st century, duration of dry spell is projected to shorten for the whole peninsula and for Akademik Vernadsky station by about 7-10% under the scenario RCP4.5 and 10-15% under the RCP8.5. Projected SDII changes are up to +20% till the end of the century under the scenario RCP8.5 at north-west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Conclusions. Over the Antarctic Peninsula region both scenarios project an average increase in total PRCPTOT and SDII; overall the maximum length of CWD is extended while the maximum length of the CDD is reduced. In combination with decreasing number of frost (FD) and ice (ID) days, the pattern of changes differs notably across the peninsula. It is shown in the first part of the paper that over the Antarctic Peninsula region, both scenarios project an average decrease in the cold season period. The most pronounced changes of ID and FD climate indices are for the Larsen Ice Sh...

show abstract

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This research is based on results of Polar-CORD-EX initiative (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Polar Regions) (Giorgi, Gutowski, 2015;Koenigk et al, 2015). Driving fields for used RCMs were derived from two GCMs of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparing Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al, 2011).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices

Chyhareva¹,

Krakovska²,

Pishniak

2020

UAJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Based on these data, we conclude that the prohibition of any anthropogenic activities in the protected landscape will lead to loss of diversity of steppe assemblages in mid-term. Modern (Abdullin and Shikhov 2019;Shalaumova et al 2010;Shikhov et al 2020) and future (Feng et al 2019) increases in precipitation in the Urals make the problem of steppe protection more difficult to solve. We emphasize that conservation of high plant diversity has to include disturbance factors in the form of selective lumbering, prescribed fires, moderate grazing or traditional mowing management.…”

Section: Implementation For Nature Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term ecology and conservation of the Kungur forest-steppe (pre-Urals, Russia): case study Spasskaya Gora

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Kungur forest-steppe is the northernmost outpost of European forest-steppe, located in the western pre-Urals within the boreal climatic zone. The co-existence of boreal, nemoral and steppe species with relicts and endemics results in a high plant diversity, making it an important biodiversity hotspot. Under current climate change and strong agricultural impacts, the Kungur forest-steppe is rapidly degrading. In order to develop sustainable management strategies, we studied the vegetation history over the last 3500 years in the natural reserve area Spasskaya Gora. Palynological data indicate that the territory of Spasskaya Gora was largely covered by hemiboreal forests with high proportion of elm during the late Holocene. An opening of the vegetation strongly correlates with erosion, both indicating anthropogenic activities such as lumbering, agriculture, grazing and hay making. The modern Pinus and Betula dominated forests combined with large areas dominated by grasses and herbs appear in the last 300 years and caused by human activity. The data support the ‘anthropogenic’ hypothesis of the Kungur forest-steppe development, suggesting that Pleistocene steppe was replaced by hemiboreal forests during the Holocene. Steppe elements survived on exposed rocks. The recent forest-steppe landscapes dominated by pioneer birch and poplar were formed due to anthropogenic deforestation. With respect to nature conservation, our data demonstrate that prohibition of any anthropogenic activities at Spasskaya Gora will lead to loss of diversity of steppe assemblages over the mid-term. We emphasize that conservation of the high plant diversity of the Kungur forest-steppe must include disturbance factors in the form of selective lumbering, prescribed burning, moderate grazing or traditional mowing.

show abstract

“…Recent predictions suggest that earth's surface can warm on the average by a 1.5 to 4 °C, over following century (Stocker et al, 2013;O'Gorman et al, 2016). In the subtropical areas, rainfall predicted to increased and get more intense and frequent through the end of the current (Feng et al, 2018). The heavy precipitation will also drive the higher input of nutrients describe the abbreviation dissolved inorganic carbon (DOC), and describe the abbreviation DIC from terrestrial runoff (Nicolle et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Rising (Two Celsius) Effect on Planktonic Biomass in Subtropical Marshes, Iraq

Al-Haidarey¹

2021

Biol. Appl. Environ. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Planktonic species may respond to climate change through their niche across three axes which include self, space and time. This study was designed to investigate the effect of increasing winter temperature on the plankton biomass, the mesocosm was constructed as a collection of 16 enclosures with a water-outlet system and natural sediment, two aquatic plant species and heating system. This research was conducted over 12 weeks (beginning on Dec. 2018) when the temperature of eight enclosures was 2±0.2 °C higher than the ambient temperature. Weekly abiotic parameters (salinity, pH, PO4, NO3, DIC) and biotic (chlorophyll-a, zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass) were reported. The obtained results showed that there were no major improvements in salinity, pH, PO4, NO3 and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Whereas, chlorophyll-a, zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass have dramatically improved. Therefore, this research has indicated that water temperature change during the winter season due to climate change could affect planktonic biomass and early spring in subtropical marshes, but this study was performed in the mesocosm experiment and it needs to be studied in large-scale natural lake ecosystems.

show abstract

Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high‐resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation

Cited by 41 publications

References 57 publications

Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices

Climate projections over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the end of the 21st century. Part II: wet/dry indices

Long-term ecology and conservation of the Kungur forest-steppe (pre-Urals, Russia): case study Spasskaya Gora

Temperature Rising (Two Celsius) Effect on Planktonic Biomass in Subtropical Marshes, Iraq

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About