The impact of the circulation shift under climate warming on the distribution of precipitation extremes and the associated sensitivity to model resolution are investigated using Community Atmosphere Model Version 3.0 in an aquaplanet configuration. The response of the probability density function of the precipitation to a uniform sea surface temperature warming can be interpreted as superimposition of a dynamically induced poleward shift and a thermodynamically induced upward shift toward higher intensities, which give rise to manyfold increase in the frequency of the most extreme categories of the precipitation events at the poleward side of the midlatitude storm track. Coarser resolutions underestimate not only the intensity of the precipitation extremes but also the dynamical contribution to the increase of precipitation extremes. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic contribution to the intensification of the precipitation extremes is substantially less than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, implicative of significant change in the vertical structure of the precipitation processes.

Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high‐resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal‐mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°–30°N) and southern subtropics‐to‐midlatitudes (30°–40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1–30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°–40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid‐to‐high latitude belt (40°–70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.

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[1] In this study, two sets of six-member ensemble simulations were performed for the boreal summer of 2004 using the Finite Volume General Circulation model to investigate the sensitivity of the North American monsoon (NAM) system to land surface conditions and further to identify the mechanisms by which land surface processes control the NAM precipitation. The control simulation uses a fully interactive land surface model, whereas the sensitivity experiment uses prescribed land surface fields from the Global Land Data Assimilation System. [2] The response of the monsoon precipitation to land surface changes varies over different regions modulated by two different soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks. The vast northern NAM region, including most of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as the northwestern Mexico shows that soil moisture has a positive feedback with precipitation primarily due to local recycling mechanisms. The reduction of soil moisture decreases latent heat flux and increases sensible heat flux and consequently increases the Bowen ratio and surface temperature, leading to a deep (warm and dry) boundary layer, which suppresses convection and hence reduces precipitation. Over the west coast of Mexico near Sinaloa, a negative soil moisture-precipitation relationship is noted to be associated with a large-scale mechanism. The reduced soil moisture changes surface fluxes and hence boundary layer instability and ultimately low-level circulation. As a result, the changes in surface pressure and large scale wind field increase moisture flux convergence and consequently moisture content, leading to increased atmospheric instability and in turn enhancing convection and accordingly precipitation. These results further reinforce the important role of land surface conditions on surface process, boundary structure, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall during the NAM development.