Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experiment

Singh, Deepti; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

doi:10.1002/jgrd.50543

Cited by 121 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 118 publications

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“…Except for APHRODITE, ERA-Interim, and JRA55, the rest shows a remarkable increasing trend over central India, which is consistent with the finding of Rana et al (2015) and Prakash et al (2014). Singh et al (2013) found that APHRODITE has opposite trend signs for extreme precipitation intensity from the 2000s onwards when compared with the IMD dataset (2140 rain-gauge station).…”

Section: Interannual Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 85%

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Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

et al. 2018

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In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and lowresolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.

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Section: Interannual Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 85%

“…To define daily precipitation extremes, we used the percentile approach (Diffenbaugh et al 2005;Malik et al 2012;Kopparla et al 2013;Singh et al 2013). In particular, for a percentile threshold of p, we find the pth percentile of the distribution of daily rainfall over all the grids over the Asian domain.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

et al. 2018

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“…Projected decreases in precipitation concur with projections by Schoof [2], who reported moderate precipitation decreases for the Southern USA based on the fifth assessment report (AR5) [16]. Similarly, Singh et al [45] projected strong dry trends in seasonal precipitation for the Southwest USA. Moreover, average temperature (Tmin and Tmax) projections show consistent increases during all three periods; twofold increases in Tmin and Tmax are projected in the 2090s compared with projected increases in the 2020s and 2055s (Figure 4b,c).…”

Section: Seasonal Changes Of Projected Climatesupporting

confidence: 80%

“…The findings of the current study are in agreement with those of Schoof [2], who reported a projected decline in annual total precipitation in the Southwest USA. Similarly, Singh et al [45] reported negative anomalies of total annual precipitation in the Southwestern USA. However, positive increases in precipitation were reported in areas with monsoon climates, such as Nepal [6].…”

Section: Future Climate Projections and Uncertainties Of Gcmsmentioning

confidence: 86%

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Awal

Bayabil

Fares

2016

Water

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Texas' fast-growing economy and population, coupled with cycles of droughts due to climate change, are creating an insatiable demand for water and an increasing need to understand the potential impacts of future climates and climate extremes on the state's water resources. The objective of this study was to determine potential future climates and climate extremes; and to assess spatial and temporal changes in precipitation (Prec), and minimum and maximum temperature (Tmin and Tmax, respectively), in the Brazos Headwaters Basin under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) for three future periods: 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). Daily gridded climate data obtained from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) were used to downscale outputs from 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model. Results indicate that basin average Tmin and Tmax will increase; however, annual precipitation will decrease for all periods. Annual precipitation will decrease by up to 5.2% and 6.8% in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. However, in some locations in the basin, up to a 14% decrease in precipitation is projected in the 2090s under the A2 (high) emissions scenario. Overall, the northwestern and southern part of the Brazos Headwaters Basin will experience greater decreases in precipitation. Moreover, precipitation indices of the number of wet days (prec ≥ 5 mm) and heavy precipitation days (prec ≥ 10 mm) are projected to slightly decrease for all future periods. On the other hand, Tmin and Tmax will increase by 2 and 3 • C on average in the 2055s and 2090s, respectively. Mostly, projected increases in Tmin and Tmax will be in the upper range in the southern and southeastern part of the basin. Temperature indices of frost (Tmin < 0 • C) and ice days (Tmax < 0 • C) are projected to decrease, while tropical nights (Tmin > 20 • C) and summer days (Tmax > 25 • C) are expected to increase. However, while the frequency distribution of meteorological drought shows slight shifts towards the dry range, there was no significant difference between the baseline and projected meteorological drought frequency and severity.

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“…Understanding future changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events is important when formulating adaptation and mitigation strategies that minimize damage to natural and human systems [3]. Indeed, Zubieta & Saavedra [4] point out that one of the most important aspects of climate change that requires in-depth research is the characterization of precipitation in time and space.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Concentration Using the Gini Index and PCI

Sangüesa

Pizarro

Ibáñez

et al. 2018

Water

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This study aims to determine if there is variation in precipitation concentrations in Chile. We analyzed daily and monthly records from 89 pluviometric stations in the period and distributed between 29 • 12 S and 39 • 30 S. This area was divided into two climatic zones: arid-semiarid and humid-subhumid. For each station, the Gini coefficient or Gini Index (GI), the precipitation concentration index (PCI), and the maximum annual precipitation intensity in a 24-h duration were calculated. These series of annual values were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall test with 5% error. Overall, it was noted that positive trends in the GI are present in both areas, although most were not found to be significant. In the case of PCI, the presence of positive trends is only present in the arid-semiarid zone; in the humid-subhumid zone, negative trends were mostly observed, although none of them were significant. Although no significant changes in all indices are evident, the particular case of the GI in the humid-subhumid zone stands out, where mostly positive trends were found (91.1%), of which 35.6% were significant. This would indicate that precipitation is more likely to be concentrated on a daily scale.

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Precipitation extremes over the continental United States in a transient, high‐resolution, ensemble climate model experiment

Cited by 121 publications

References 118 publications

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies

Analysis of Potential Future Climate and Climate Extremes in the Brazos Headwaters Basin, Texas

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Concentration Using the Gini Index and PCI

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