Precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries under the influence of large‐scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors

Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Remm, Kalle

doi:10.1002/joc.1929

Cited by 64 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In gen- High values of winter precipitation and high temperatures in spring can be interpreted in the context of spring floods; however, additional analysis is needed to account for the snow cover. The spatial distribution of PC3 is similar to the map of average annual precipitation in the study region (Jaagus et al, 2010). Interestingly, the precipitation in autumn months (September-October) has a small contribution to PC3 (Table 5).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

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Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis

2017

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Abstract. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to derive climate indices that describe the main spatial features of the climate in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). Monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values derived from the ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate models (RCMs) were used. Principal components were derived for the years . The first three components describe 92 % of the variance in the initial data and were chosen as climate indices in further analysis. Spatial patterns of these indices and their correlation with the initial variables were analyzed, and it was detected (based on correlation coefficient between principal components and initial variables) that higher values in each index corresponded to locations with (1) less distinct seasonality, (2) warmer climate, and (3) wetter climate. In addition, for the pattern of the first index, the impact of the Baltic Sea (distance to coast) was apparent; for the second, latitude and elevation were apparent, and for the third elevation was apparent. The loadings from the chosen principal components were further used to calculate the values of the climate indices for the years 2071-2100. An overall increase was found for all three indices with minimal changes in their spatial pattern.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

“…The terrain is mostly flat, with the highest elevations extending slightly above 300 m. The Baltic Sea and the shape of its coastline have an important role in the climate of the region. PCA has been used to describe precipitation patterns in the Baltic countries with atmospheric and landscape variables (Jaagus et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis

2017

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“…Based on the data of two stations (Vilsandi and Tiirikoja, Estonia), an abrupt increase was observed in the zonal component of average air flow from January to March, in air temperature for January and February, and in precipitation for February (Keevallik, 2011). However, the precipitation regime in the eastern Baltic region can be characterised by a very high spatial and temporal variability and thus there are few reliable trends in time series of precipitation (Jaagus et al, 2010(Jaagus et al, , 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Time series of monthly, seasonal and annual mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers in Estonia are analysed for detecting of trends and regime shifts during 1951-2015. Trend analysis is realised using the Mann-Kendall test and regime shifts are detected with the Rodionov test (sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts). The results from Estonia are related to trends and regime shifts in time series of indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Annual mean air temperature has significantly increased at all 12 stations by 0.3-0.4 K decade −1 . The warming trend was detected in all seasons but with the higher magnitude in spring and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 3-4 days decade −1 . Changes in precipitation are not clear and uniform due to their very high spatial and temporal variability. The most significant increase in precipitation was observed during the cold half-year, from November to March and also in June. A time series of specific runoff measured at 21 stations had significant seasonal changes during the study period. Winter values have increased by 0.4-0.9 L s −1 km −2 decade −1 , while stronger changes are typical for western Estonia and weaker changes for eastern Estonia. At the same time, specific runoff in April and May have notably decreased indicating the shift of the runoff maximum to the earlier time, i.e. from April to March. Air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers are highly correlated in winter determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Correlation coefficients between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices reflecting the intensity of westerlies, and the studied variables were 0.5-0.8. The main result of the analysis of regime shifts was the detection of coherent shifts for air temperature, snow cover duration and specific runoff in the late 1980s, mostly since the winter of 1988/1989, which are, in turn, synchronous with the shifts in winter circulation. For example, runoff abruptly increased in January, February and March but decreased in April. Regime shifts in annual specific runoff correspond to the alternation of wet and dry periods. A dry period started in 1964 or 1963, a wet period in 1978 and the next dry period at the beginning of the 21st century.

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“…4.16). Spatial distribution and trends in precipitation related to large-scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors were analysed for the three Baltic countries (Jaagus et al 2010). A statistically significant positive trend for 1966-2005 was detected only for eastern Estonia, eastern Latvia and Lithuania as a whole in winter and for western Estonia in summer.…”

Section: Precipitation Climate In Recent Decadesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Change—Atmosphere

Rutgersson

Jaagus

Schenk

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter describes observed changes in atmospheric conditions in the Baltic Sea drainage basin over the past 200-300 years. The Baltic Sea area is relatively unique with a dense observational network covering an extended time period. Data analysis covers an early period with sparse and relatively uncertain measurements, a period with well-developed synoptic stations, and a final period with 30+ years of satellite data and sounding systems. The atmospheric circulation in the European/Atlantic sector has an important role in the regional climate of the Baltic Sea basin, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation. Warming has been observed, particularly in spring, and has been stronger in the northern regions. There has been a northward shift in storm tracks, as well as increased cyclonic activity in recent decades and an increased persistence of weather types. There are no long-term trends in annual wind statistics since the nineteenth century, but much variation at the (multi-)decadal timescale. There are also no long-term trends in precipitation, but an indication of longer precipitation periods and possibly an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

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Precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries under the influence of large‐scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors

Cited by 64 publications

References 27 publications

Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis

Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

Recent Change—Atmosphere

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