Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

Harwell, Glenn R.; McDowell, J. Spotts; Gunn, Cathina L.; Garrett, Brett

doi:10.3133/sir20195137

Cited by 2 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Across this area, the annual average temperature changes but not as significantly as the precipitation. A survey of trends in mean annual precipitation, air temperature, and streamflow shows moderate increases in precipitation in the eastern portion of the state and increases in air temperature of 0.6°C per 50 years across the state leading to increased potential evapotranspiration (Harwell et al., 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Drivers of Stream Chemical Behavior: Leveraging Lithology, Land Use, and Climate Gradients Across the Colorado River, Texas USA

Mark

Ricketts

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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Understanding relationships between stream chemistry and watershed factors: land use/land cover, climate, and lithology are crucial to improving our knowledge of critical zone processes that influence water quality. We compiled major ion data from >100 monitoring stations collected over 60 years (1958–2018) across the Colorado River Watershed in Texas (103,000 km2). We paired this river chemistry data with complementary lithology, land use, climate, and stream discharge information. Machine learning techniques were used to produce new insights on controls of stream water chemical behavior, which were validated using traditional multivariate analyses. Studies on stream flow and chemistry in the American west and globally have shown strong relationships between major ion chemical composition, climate, and lithology which hold true for the Colorado River basin in this study. Reactive minerals, including carbonates and evaporites, dominate major ion chemistry across the upper, low‐precipitation regions of the watershed. Upstream and middle reaches of the Colorado River showed shifts from Na‐Cl‐SO4 dominated water from multiple sources including dissolution of gypsum and halite in shallow groundwater, and agricultural activities, to Ca‐HCO3 water types controlled by carbonate dissolution. In the lower portion of the watershed multiple analyses demonstrate that stream chemistry is more influenced by greater precipitation and the presence of silicate minerals than the middle and upstream reaches. This study demonstrates the power of applying machine learning approaches to publicly available long term water chemistry data sets to improve the understanding of watershed interactions with surficial lithology, salinity sources, and anthropogenic influences of water quality.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Drivers of Stream Chemical Behavior: Leveraging Lithology, Land Use, and Climate Gradients Across the Colorado River, Texas USA

Mark

Ricketts

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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“…This was done using surface-water and groundwater models to evaluate future conditions under different global climate scenarios. This assessment builds on a recently completed study that evaluated historical long-term trends in streamflow and other hydrologic properties for the TRB as well as other water-supply basins in Texas (Harwell et al 2020). In this study, those historical long-term trends were used to forecast climate scenarios, and the results were used to inform a surface-water model (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System [PRMS] model) and groundwater model (MODFLOW numerical groundwater-flow model).…”

Section: Purpose and Scopementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As of 2022, the USGS operates 24 lake and reservoir water-surface elevation stations in the TRB (USGS 2022). Of the 32 reservoirs, 14 were analyzed in Harwell et al (2020) for historical long-term trends, and these 14 reservoirs represent 74% of the total storage in the TRB. divided the TRB into five sections; section 1 was the most downstream, and section 5 was the most upstream section.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the same methods used in Harwell et al (2020), Kendall's tau was used to detect upward or downward trends in precipitation, groundwater levels, and streamflow. Kendall's tau is a rank-based correlation coefficient that measures the strength of the monotonic relationship between two variables.…”

Section: Long-term Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The approach used by Harwell et al (2020) to analyze for trends in different sections of the TRB was also used in this study. The previously mentioned five sections defined by Harwell et al (2020) were created by making roughly equal divisions of the aggregated counties that overlap the TRB. These sections were used for analyzing historical long-term trends (Figure 2).…”

Section: Long-term Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Use of Historical Data and Global Climate Models to Assess Historical and Future Surface Water and Groundwater Availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas

et al. 2023

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This paper describes the results of a study that was done by the USGS to assess recent (2017) water availability, forecast long-term trends in water availability, assess changes in water availability, and forecast future water availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas. The Trinity River Basin surface water model and Trinity River alluvium aquifer (TRAA) groundwater model were created to evaluate future conditions under different global climate models (GCM). The results of this study show minimal overall changes in water availability for both surface water and groundwater. Trend analyses using historical data (1900–2017) indicated an increase of annual precipitation on the watersheds that drain into the reservoirs in Regional Water Planning Group C. However, the Trinity River Basin surface water model GCM ensemble mean annual precipitation indicates a downward trend, resulting in a downward trend in surface runoff. Additionally, the GCM ensemble mean for the Trinity River Basin surface water model and the TRAA groundwater model both indicate a downward trend in recharge while the TRAA model GCM ensemble mean indicates an upward trend in the amount of groundwater leaving the aquifer to rivers and streams resulting in an upward trend of cumulative storage change.

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Precipitation, temperature, groundwater-level elevation, streamflow, and potential flood storage trends within the Brazos, Colorado, Big Cypress, Guadalupe, Neches, Sulphur, and Trinity River basins in Texas through 2017

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Regional Drivers of Stream Chemical Behavior: Leveraging Lithology, Land Use, and Climate Gradients Across the Colorado River, Texas USA

Regional Drivers of Stream Chemical Behavior: Leveraging Lithology, Land Use, and Climate Gradients Across the Colorado River, Texas USA

The Use of Historical Data and Global Climate Models to Assess Historical and Future Surface Water and Groundwater Availability in the Trinity River Basin in Texas

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