Predictability of European winter 2015/2016

Scaife, Adam A.; Comer, Ruth; Dunstone, Nick; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Good, Elizabeth; Gordon, Margaret; Hermanson, Leon; Ineson, Sarah; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Knight, Jeff; MacLachlan, Craig; Maidens, Anna; Peterson, K. Andrew; Smith, Doug; Slingo, Julia; Walker, Brent

doi:10.1002/asl.721

Cited by 44 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…At nearly the same time as the QBO disruption, there was one of the strongest El Niño events on record and very strong stratospheric polar vortex in early to midwinter (Cheung et al, 2016;Hu et al, 2016;Scaife et al, 2017). The interplay of these three events and their potential impact on trace gas distributions remains to be investigated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasiperiodic alternation between easterly and westerly zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere, propagating downward from the middle stratosphere to the tropopause with a period that varies from 24 to 32 months ( ∼ 28 months on average). The QBO wind oscillations affect the distribution of chemical constituents, such as ozone (O 3 ), water vapor (H 2 O), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and hydrochloric acid (HCl), through the QBO-induced meridional circulation. In the 2015-2016 winter, radiosonde observations revealed an anomaly in the downward propagation of the westerly phase, which was disrupted by the upward displacement of the westerly phase from ∼ 30 hPa up to 15 hPa and the sudden appearance of easterlies at 40 hPa. Such a disruption is unprecedented in the observational record from 1953 to the present. In this study we show the response of trace gases to this QBO disruption using O 3 , HCl, H 2 O, and temperature from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and total ozone measurements from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) Merged Ozone Data Set (MOD). Results reveal the development of positive anomalies in stratospheric equatorial O 3 and HCl over ∼ 50-30 hPa in May-September of 2016 and a substantial decrease in O 3 in the subtropics of both hemispheres. The SBUV observations show near-record low levels of column ozone in the subtropics in 2016, resulting in an increase in the surface UV index during northern summer. Furthermore, cold temperature anomalies near the tropical tropopause result in a global decrease in stratospheric water vapor.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Increasing winter wave height and interannual variability and periodicity along the Atlantic coast of Europe is controlled by changes in atmospheric circulation primarily described through WEPA and NAO. Although chaotic and unpredictable variability still dominates in many cases, recent research has provided evidence of increased skill in seasonal predictability of the NAO using the latest generation forecasting systems (Dunstone et al, ; Scaife et al, , ). The seasonal predictability of WEPA using these latest forecast systems had not yet studied in detail.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Winter‐Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949–2017

Castelle

Dodet

Masselink

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A 69‐year (1948–2017) numerical weather and wave hindcast is used to investigate the interannual variability and trend of winter wave height along the west coast of Europe. Results show that the winter‐mean wave height, variability, and periodicity all increased significantly in the northeast Atlantic over the last seven decades which primarily correlate with changes in the climate indices North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) affecting atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. NAO and WEPA primarily explain the increase in winter‐mean wave height and periodicity, respectively, while both WEPA and NAO explain the increase in interannual variability. This increase in trend, variability, and periodicity resulted in more frequent high‐energy winters with high NAO and/or WEPA over the last decades. The ability of climate models to predict the winter NAO and WEPA indices a few months ahead will be crucial to anticipate coastal hazards in this region.

show abstract

“…The fact that certain years are well forecast by most systems suggests that there are processes or teleconnections leading to these years being more predictable. Scaife et al () showed that the NAO seasonal forecast skill in GloSea5‐GA3 is conditional on the presence of sudden stratospheric warmings (Sigmond et al, ) but originates from tropical rainfall (Scaife et al, ). Stockdale et al () and Scaife et al () argue that factors such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation play a role, and Butler et al () showed that models that resolve the stratospheric response to tropical drivers give more skillful NAO forecasts.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Seasonal Hindcasts Of the Wintertime Naomentioning

confidence: 99%

An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

Baker

Shaffrey

Sutton

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

100

105

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent studies of individual seasonal forecast systems have shown that the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be skillfully forecast. However, it has also been suggested that these skillful forecasts tend to be underconfident, meaning that there is too high a proportion of unpredictable noise in the forecasts. We assess the skill and overconfidence/underconfidence of the seasonal forecast systems contributing to the EUROpean Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) multimodel ensemble system. Five of the seven systems studied have significant skill for forecasting the wintertime NAO at 2‐ to 4‐month lead times. Four of these skillful systems are underconfident for forecasting the NAO. A multimodel ensemble (ensemble size 126 members) is both skillful and clearly underconfident. Underconfidence becomes more pronounced as the ensemble size increases. Certain years in the hindcast period are well forecast by all or most models. This implies that common teleconnections and drivers of the NAO are being captured by the EUROSIP seasonal forecasts.

show abstract

Predictability of European winter 2015/2016

Cited by 44 publications

References 53 publications

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

Increased Winter‐Mean Wave Height, Variability, and Periodicity in the Northeast Atlantic Over 1949–2017

An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About