Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large‐scale surface warming using statistical methods

Mann, Michael; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Frankcombe, Leela M.; England, Matthew H.; Cheung, Anson H.

doi:10.1002/2016gl068159

Cited by 14 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Thus, this variation seems to be linked to the changes in the NA climate since 1851 A.D. Considering that the decadal-scale climate changes in the NA may be more cyclical and predictable than in other regions (Mann et al, 2016), our findings here have implications for the accurate prediction of monsoon variability in the coming decades. Nonetheless, further study is still needed to investigate the decadal variability of the GM in different climate mean states (such as the Little Ice Age) using the combination of proxy records and coupled models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

The Decadal Variability of the Global Monsoon Links to the North Atlantic Climate Since 1851

Han

Yan

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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To date, the decadal variability of the Global Monsoon (GM) has been mainly studied using instrumental data collected over the last 50 years, and further discussion has been hampered by the limited data length. Here, we present a coral δ18O record from the northern South China Sea, where the hydrology is related to the seasonal Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migration, and we use this record to reconstruct the decadal migration of the ITCZ since 1851 A.D. Combining our record with a synthesis of monsoon records reveals an anti‐phase inter‐hemispheric variability of the GM over the last 150 years, indicating that the decadal‐scale hydrologic variability in the tropics is modulated by the meridional migration of the ITCZ. The plausible relationship observed between the decadal variability of the GM and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation suggests that the decadal variability of tropical hydrological changes is likely linked to the climate perturbations in the North Atlantic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 66%

The Decadal Variability of the Global Monsoon Links to the North Atlantic Climate Since 1851

Han

Yan

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to continue increasing in the next 20 years and Earth is expected to warm accordingly. But there is limited—if any—skill in predicting how natural processes might modulate anthropogenic warming in the next two decades (Mann et al, ; Power, Haylock, Colman, & Wang, ; Vecchi & Wittenberg, ). Assuming past is prologue, El Niño and La Niña will fluctuate, solar irradiance will continue cycling every ~11 to 12 years and volcanoes may erupt intermittently.…”

Section: Plausible Scenarios For Climate Change In the Next 20 Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change

Lean

2018

WIREs Climate Change

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The beginning of the 21st century has been widely designated a “global warming hiatus” or “pause” or “slowdown” because the rate of change of global surface temperature is a factor of two to three smaller than in the last half of the twentieth century. Indeed, observed global surface temperature (shown as black symbols in the top panel) warmed minimally. The rate of change of global surface temperature (shown as black symbols in the second panel) reached its lowest value in the 12‐year interval centered on 2007–2008. But while the terminology “hiatus” and “pause” may imply a reduction or cessation of the warming of the Earth by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, statistical models constructed from the observations over two different time periods (the space era, 1979 to 2017, shown as orange lines and the historical era, 1882 to 2017, shown as the blue lines) readily reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies as simply the mitigation of ongoing anthropogenic warming by natural influences. The bottom panels show that the rates of change in temperature anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña (third panel) and solar irradiance (fifth panel), in particular, have negative values during the “pause” which counter much of the positive anthropogenic influence (sixth panel). Even though natural influences mitigated the anthropogenic warming globally, this was typically not the case regionally. On the right are the different spatial patterns of surface temperature rates of change that the space‐era statistical model attributes to each influence.

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“…The multimodel mean series, as in M16, are computed as a simple arithmetic mean of ensemble members. The series were extended to 2016 using the protocol of Mann et al [2016b] which involves alignment of the anthropogenic-only and all-forcing simulations during a common interval of zero mean natural forcing followed by linear forward extension of the anthropogenic-only component from 2005 to the terminal (2016) boundary (a type of "business as usual" extension) and persistence extension of the natural-only component. As with the observational temperature series, we focused on the interval 1880-2016 and defined anomalies relative to the long-term (1880-2016) mean.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint

Mann

Miller

Rahmstorf

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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We use a previously developed semiempirical approach to assess the likelihood of the sequence of consecutive record‐breaking temperatures in 2014–2016. This approach combines information from historical temperature data and state‐of‐the‐art historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that this sequence of record‐breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming. It was still a rare but not implausible event (roughly 1–3% likelihood) taking anthropogenic warming into effect. The probability that three consecutive records would have been observed at some point since 2000 is estimated as ~30–50% given anthropogenic warming and <0.7% in its absence. The likelihood of observing the specific level of record warmth recorded during 2016 is no more than ~one‐in‐a‐million neglecting anthropogenic warming, but as high as 27%, i.e., a nearly one‐in‐three chance of occurrence taking anthropogenic warming into account.

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Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large‐scale surface warming using statistical methods

Cited by 14 publications

References 32 publications

The Decadal Variability of the Global Monsoon Links to the North Atlantic Climate Since 1851

The Decadal Variability of the Global Monsoon Links to the North Atlantic Climate Since 1851

Observation‐based detection and attribution of 21st century climate change

Record temperature streak bears anthropogenic fingerprint

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