Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling

Daglis, Ioannis A.; Chang, Loren C.; Dasso, S.; Gopalswamy, N.; Khabarova, Olga; López, Ramón; Marsh, D. R.; Matthes, Katja; Nandy, Dibyendu; Shiokawa, K.; Thiéblemont, Rémi; Zong, Qiugang

doi:10.5194/angeo-39-1013-2021

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 134 publications

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“…A comprehensive understanding of the Sun-Earth system leads to improvements in the prediction of phenomena that have significant societal relevance. This calls for improvement in tools such as data assimilation, statistical analysis, and synthesis of observations and models (Daglis et al, 2021). Several studies have analyzed interacting large-scale solar wind phenomena using multipoint observations supported by heliospheric modeling and their space weather impacts (Farrugia et al, 2011;Winslow et al, 2021;Pal et al, 2022b).…”

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confidence: 99%

Global insight into a complex-structured heliosphere based on the local multi-point analysis

Pal

Balmaceda

Weiss

et al. 2023

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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From 29 January to 7 February 2022, the heliosphere was structured with large-scale interacting substructures that appeared with significant dissimilarities at distant observations separated longitudinally by ∼34°. Probing the complexity of the structured heliosphere with multi-point in situ and imaging observations by using a fleet of spacecraft has revealed many unknown facts on the dynamics of large-scale structures in the heliosphere. In this paper, we investigate a complex-structured heliosphere by analyzing the Sun, solar corona, and solar wind with remote and in situ observations aided by heliospheric modeling. We identified multiple flux ropes (FRs) associated with large expulsions of magnetized plasma-coronal mass ejections, from the same solar source in a three-day interval, an interplanetary wave shock, and a sheath in front of the FRs. In situ observations displayed a stream interaction region behind FRs formed due to the overtaking of different-speed solar winds. This high-speed stream originated from a coronal hole located southeast of the coronal mass ejection solar source. We find evidence of merging FRs, FR deflection due to the presence of the nearby coronal hole, and FR’s unalike structural appearance at distant multi-point observations obtained at 1 au. This complex-structured heliosphere resulted in multiple G1-class geomagnetic storms when interacting with Earth’s magnetosphere. Thus, the study focuses on the reconstruction of the structured heliosphere based on observations and modeling. It highlights the importance of multi-point observations in understanding the global configuration and disparity in the local nature of a structured heliosphere.

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confidence: 99%

Global insight into a complex-structured heliosphere based on the local multi-point analysis

Pal

Balmaceda

Weiss

et al. 2023

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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“…Thus, the timescales involved range from minutes to a few days. Accordingly the predictability of flares, SEPs, and CME/shock arrival differ significantly [195]. While predicting flare/CME occurrence based on source region properties is a long way away, there are methods being developed actively using statistics and machine learning (see [196] and references therein].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sun and Space Weather

Gopalswamy

2022

Atmosphere

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The explosion of space weather research since the early 1990s has been partly fueled by the unprecedented, uniform, and extended observations of solar disturbances from space- and ground-based instruments. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from closed magnetic field regions and high-speed streams (HSS) from open-field regions on the Sun account for most of the disturbances relevant to space weather. The main consequences of CMEs and HSS are their ability to cause geomagnetic storms and accelerate particles. Particles accelerated by CME-driven shocks can pose danger to humans and their technological structures in space. Geomagnetic storms produced by CMEs and HSS-related stream interaction regions also result in particle energization inside the magnetosphere that can have severe impact on satellites operating in the magnetosphere. Solar flares are another aspect of solar magnetic energy release, mostly characterized by the sudden enhancement in electromagnetic emission at various wavelengths—from radio waves to gamma-rays. Flares are responsible for the sudden ionospheric disturbances and prompt perturbation of Earth’s magnetic field known as magnetic crochet. Nonthermal electrons accelerated during flares can emit intense microwave radiation that can drown spacecraft and radar signals. This review article summarizes major milestones in understanding the connection between solar variability and space weather.

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“…The role of the Sun's plasma and magnetic activity in the paleoclimate (4 billion years ago) and climate change over the past millennia and longer (but prior to major anthropogenic impact on climate) is the subject of a long-standing debate for nearly 30 years after the introduction of non-linear methods to correlate the solar activity (length of the solar cycle, length of solar minimum, or strength of solar dipole magnetic field, instead of simple sunspot number or solar irradiance) with the terrestrial climate (not only the average temperature but also the regional pressure such as north Atlantic oscillation or cloud coverage) [56][57][58][59][60][61]. Figure 10 shows the correlation study by Stauning [60].…”

Section: Past Climate Change: Solar Influencementioning

confidence: 99%

Plasma-neutral gas interactions in various space environments: Assessment beyond simplified approximations as a Voyage 2050 theme

et al. 2022

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In the White Paper, submitted in response to the European Space Agency (ESA) Voyage 2050 Call, we present the importance of advancing our knowledge of plasma-neutral gas interactions, and of deepening our understanding of the partially ionized environments that are ubiquitous in the upper atmospheres of planets and moons, and elsewhere in space. In future space missions, the above task requires addressing the following fundamental questions: (A) How and by how much do plasma-neutral gas interactions influence the re-distribution of externally provided energy to the composing species? (B) How and by how much do plasma-neutral gas interactions contribute toward the growth of heavy complex molecules and biomolecules? Answering these questions is an absolute prerequisite for addressing the long-standing questions of atmospheric escape, the origin of biomolecules, and their role in the evolution of planets, moons, or comets, under the influence of energy sources in the form of electromagnetic and corpuscular radiation, because low-energy ion-neutral cross-sections in space cannot be reproduced quantitatively in laboratories for conditions of satisfying, particularly, (1) low-temperatures, (2) tenuous or strong gradients or layered media, and (3) in low-gravity plasma. Measurements with a minimum core instrument package (< 15 kg) can be used to perform such investigations in many different conditions and should be included in all deep-space missions. These investigations, if specific ranges of background parameters are considered, can also be pursued for Earth, Mars, and Venus.

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Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling

Cited by 19 publications

References 134 publications

Global insight into a complex-structured heliosphere based on the local multi-point analysis

Global insight into a complex-structured heliosphere based on the local multi-point analysis

The Sun and Space Weather

Plasma-neutral gas interactions in various space environments: Assessment beyond simplified approximations as a Voyage 2050 theme

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