Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam A.; Hawkins, Ed; Bilbao, Roberto; Boer, G. J.; Caian, Mihaela; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Danabasoglu, Gökhan; Delworth, Thomas L.; Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J.; Doescher, Ralf; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Hermanson, Leon; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Kimoto, Masahide; Köenigk, Torben; Kushnir, Yochanan; Matei, Daniela; Meehl, Gerald A.; Ménégoz, Martin; Merryfield, William J.; Mochizuki, Takashi; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Power, Scott B.; Rixen, M.; Sospedra‐Alfonso, Reinel; Tuma, Matthias; Wyser, Klaus; Yang, Xiaosong; Yeager, Stephen

doi:10.1029/2018gl079362

Cited by 45 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…Many of our results suggest that the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates are substantial. A future 1.5°C or 2°C quasi-equilibrium warmer climate reached after overshoot (where global warming has exceeded these limits but then fallen) would likely look very different to the equivalent transient 1.5°C or 2°C climate that the world is likely to experience in the coming decades 29,30 . Indeed, a transient warmer world represents a poor predictor for an equivalent equilibrium world in many populated land regions where the difference in average seasonal temperatures is at least 0.5°C and the likelihood of hot extremes is at least twice as high in some places under the transient state.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

et al. 2019

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Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

et al. 2019

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“…The climate fluctuates on various timescales and in various patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific decadal variability (PDV), giving rise to extreme events over the globe (e.g., Camargo & Sobel, 2005; Delworth et al, 2016; Kosaka & Xie, 2013). Also, short‐term changes associated with the internal fluctuations of the climate system can offset or exacerbate the anthropogenically forced climate change, partly determining temporary exceedances over the Paris Agreement aim of “well below 2°C above preindustrial levels” (Smith et al, 2018). Skillful predictions of such climate variations would therefore benefit society and substantial efforts have been devoted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions With MIROC6: Description and Basic Evaluation

Kataoka

Tatebe

Koyama

et al. 2020

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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The present paper presents results of seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions based on a coupled climate model called the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6) contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). MIROC6 is initialized every year for 1960-2018 by assimilating observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies and full fields of sea ice concentration and by prescribing atmospheric initial states from reanalysis data. The impacts of updating the system on prediction skill are then evaluated by comparing hindcast experiments between the MIROC6 prediction system and a previous system based on MIROC version 5 (MIROC5). Skill of seasonal prediction is overall improved in association with representation and initialization of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration in MIROC6. In particular, the QBO is skillfully predicted up to 3 years ahead with a maximum anomaly correlation exceeding r = 0.8. The prediction skill for the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is also enhanced, but the prediction still suffers from model's inherent errors. On decadal timescales, MIROC6 has a larger fraction of areas of the globe with better surface temperature skill at all lead times than MIROC5, and it has predictive skill in the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and the Pacific. In particular, MIROC6 hindcasts at 2-5 years lead time are able to capture the spatial structure of SST changes in the North Pacific and the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the 1970s regime shift better than MIROC5 hindcasts.

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“…Колективом авторів Smith D. M. та ін. зроблено оцінювання швидкості глобального потеплінняна рівні не менше 0,2°C на десятиліття через минулі та поточні викиди парникових газів [3].…”

Section: і ін нн но ов ва ац ці ій йн на а е ек ко он но ом мі ік ка unclassified

Management and advisory mechanisms for climate change levelling

Bakun

2020

INNOVATIVE ECONOMY

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Purpose. The aim of the article is the comparison of management and advisory mechanisms for climate change leveling and determination the most significant groups on this basis. Methodology of research. The methodological basis of research consists of methods of comparison and generalization. The comparison of separate management and advisory mechanisms for climate change leveling was fulfilled using the comparison method. Five most significant groups of mechanisms for climate change leveling have been determined on the base of generalization method. Findings. The necessity of deepening participation at different management levels in Ukraine in solving the global warming problem is substantiated on the basis of actualization of management and advisory mechanisms for climate change leveling. It will contribute both solving the problem itself and increasing the international authority of the state. The advisability of realization of measures for climate change leveling is confirmed at the different levels: at governance levels (state, regional, sectoral, enterprise) and by leveling directions (population and business entities). The international management and advisory mechanisms for climate change leveling with identification of five characteristic groups has been generalized. The importance of solving the problem at the different management levels with use of advisory services is proved. It will permit more efficient implementation of advisory mechanisms and reach a wider coverage of solving of the tasks of climate change leveling. Originality. The international management and advisory mechanisms for climate change leveling has been generalized with identification of five characteristic groups: organizational (international organizations), regulatory and legal (conventions, resolutions, declarations), coordinating (conferences, meetings), financial and business (emission limits, environmental taxes), programs and models (models, scenarios, programs, strategies). This, unlike the existing one, gives an opportunity of its differential use in the process of preparing more substantiated management solution of the indicated problem. Practical value. The results of the research can be used in the process of preparing of strategic and program documents of an environmental nature. The effect of its implementation can be estimated by indicators of environmental improvement, in particular by indicators of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, etc. Key words: climate change, climate change leveling, management mechanisms, advisory mechanisms, groups of mechanisms for climate change leveling, agricultural advisory services.

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Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Cited by 45 publications

References 71 publications

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions With MIROC6: Description and Basic Evaluation

Management and advisory mechanisms for climate change levelling

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