Predicted changes in energy demands for heating and cooling due to climate change

Dolinar, Mojca; Vidrih, Boris; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Medved, Sašo

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2010.03.003

Cited by 43 publications

(15 citation statements)

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“…Norway, 8 Finland, 9 Slovenia, 10 Austria, 11 and Switzerland 12 agree upon the latter findings. Spinoni et al 13 show that the heating degree days decrease significantly, especially over Scandinavia and European Russia when using the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5.…”

Section: Context and Scalementioning

confidence: 56%

21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System

Kozarcanin

Liu

Andresen

2019

Joule

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Wind and solar sources currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production because of decreasing costs and efforts to mitigate climate change. Unfortunately, some degree of climate change appears to be unavoidable. We use different projections of climatic outcomes over the 21st century to assess how important key metrics of a highly renewable electricity system are affected by climate change. Smail Kozarcanin, Hailiang Liu, Gorm Bruun Andresen sko@eng.au.dk (S.K.) gba@eng.au.dk (G.B.A.) HIGHLIGHTS Climate change shows impacts on large-scale metrics of a European electricity system Largest climate impacts are observed within fully winddominated electricity systems 6 high-resolution CMIP5 GCMs under the forcing of three IPCC RCPs have been used State-of-the-art wind and solar capacity factors and electricity demand data were used Kozarcanin et al., SUMMARYFalling prices and significant technology developments currently drive an increased weather-dependent electricity production from renewables. In light of the changing climate, it is relevant to investigate to what extent climate change directly impacts future highly weather-dependent electricity systems. Here, we use three IPCC CO 2 concentration pathways for the period 2006-2100 with six high-resolution climate experiments for the European domain. Climate data are used to calculate bias-adjusted 3-hourly time series of wind and solar generation and temperature-corrected demand time series for 30 European countries using a state-of-the-art methodology. Weather-driven electricity system analysis is then applied to compare five key metrics of highly renewable electricity systems. We find that climate change changes the need for dispatchable electricity by up to 20%. The remaining key metrics, such as the benefit of transmission and storage as well as requirements for balancing capacity and reserves, change by up to 5%.

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Section: Context and Scalementioning

confidence: 56%

21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System

Kozarcanin

Liu

Andresen

2019

Joule

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“…Predicting energy consumption is beneficial for optimizing the operation mode and improving the comprehensive energy efficiency of heating and air‐conditioning systems (Dolinar et al , ). Long‐term energy consumption prediction is particularly essential and is required to make energy scheduling decisions and develop energy supply strategies with the aim of achieving energy conservation and reducing environmental impact (Ekonomou, ; Zhao and Magoulès, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of energy consumption for building heating to climatic change and variability in Tianjin City, China

Cao

Guo

et al. 2015

Meteorological Applications

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The present paper concerns the impact of climate on building heating energy consumption for different types of energy in Tianjin, a large city in northern China. The results show that heating energy consumption is dominantly related to dry bulb temperature (DBT), but the impacts vary with energy types and time scales (day, month or year). DBT can explain 97.7% of the coal consumption at different time scales and 83.0-89.7% of the natural gas consumption. DBT can also account for 25% of the daily and monthly heating electricity consumption and 89% of the annual heating electricity consumption. These results suggest that different measures for building energy conservation should be taken because of the differing climate impacts for different energy types. Especially, likely increase in temperature in the future should be considered to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. In addition, different models should be used to predict building energy consumption at different time scales. This would be helpful for energy policy makers and energy providers for adjusting energy use strategies.

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“…Amongst others, Wilbanks et al (2007b) for the USA, Aebischer et al (2007) for Switzerland and Europe, Dolinar et al (2010) for Slovenia, Wang et al (2010) for Australia, Ward (2008) for Yorkshire in the UK and Akpinar-Ferrand and Singh (2010) for India. Some of these studies assess the determinants of heating and cooling demands based on multi-country panel studies Petrick et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

Labriet¹,

Joshi

Vielle

et al. 2013

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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The energy sector is not only a major contributor to greenhouse gases, it is also vulnerable to climate change and will have to adapt to future climate conditions. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of changes in future temperatures on the heating and cooling services of buildings and the resulting energy and macro-economic effects at global and regional levels. For this purpose, the techno-economic TIAM-WORLD (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) and the general equilibrium GEMINI-E3 (General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and Environment) models are coupled with a climate model, PLASIM-ENTS (Planet-Simulator -Efficient Numerical Terrestrial Scheme). The key results are as follows. At the global level, the climate feedback induced by adaptation of the energy system to heating and cooling is found to be insignificant, partly because heating and cooling-induced changes compensate and partly because they represent a limited share of total final energy consumption. However, significant changes are observed at regional levels, more particularly in terms of additional power capacity required to satisfy additional cooling services, resulting in increases in electricity prices. In terms of macro-economic impacts, welfare gains and losses are associated more with changes in energy exports and imports than with changes in energy consumption for heating and cooling. The rebound effect appears to be non-negligible.To conclude, the coupling of models of different nature was successful and showed that the energy and economic impacts of climate change on heating and cooling remain small at the global level, but changes in energy needs will be visible at more local scale.

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Predicted changes in energy demands for heating and cooling due to climate change

Cited by 43 publications

References 1 publication

21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System

21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Key Properties of a Large-Scale Renewable-Based Electricity System

Response of energy consumption for building heating to climatic change and variability in Tianjin City, China

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling

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